The UK’s food system is increasingly vulnerable to major shocks that could trigger shortages, panic buying and wider social instability unless government and industry act to strengthen resilience, new research has warned.
An analysis published in the journal Sustainability, based on consultations with more than 30 food system experts, describes the UK food supply chain as a potential “tinderbox” exposed by long-term structural pressures including climate change, inequality and weaknesses in farming policy.
The study identifies three high-risk triggers that could push the system into crisis- extreme weather events, a large-scale cyber attack, or a major international conflict similar to the war in Ukraine.
Researchers warn that any of these could lead to “widespread fear of unsafe or inadequate food”, potentially escalating into civil unrest if compounded by low public trust and rising hardship.
The report reads, “The stability of the UK’s food system is a critical aspect of national security, yet it remains vulnerable to threats that could precipitate a crisis.
“Despite living in a high-income country with sophisticated food supply chains, people in the UK are not immune to disruptions that can lead to severe consequences, such as food insecurity, malnutrition and even civil unrest.
“Indeed, the UK has seen a tenfold increase in the number of people requiring emergency food parcels over a 10-year period, while Brexit had significant impacts on the UK’s food supply chains.”
The report highlights the UK’s reliance on global “breadbasket” regions such as the US, Brazil and Russia, warning that disruption to production or transport in those areas would quickly impact domestic availability and prices.
It also notes that the UK has already experienced pressure points, including cyber attacks in 2025 on Marks & Spencer and Co-op, as well as the longer-term supply chain adjustments following Brexit.
Food insecurity trends underline the fragility. The study references a tenfold rise in emergency food parcel use over the past decade. Separate recent data shows 18 per cent of households with children experienced food insecurity in the past month, while nine per cent reported being unable to provide balanced meals.
Researchers warn that visible shortages can quickly fuel panic buying, exacerbating supply gaps and driving price volatility. In extreme scenarios, this could encourage illicit markets, unsafe food practices and crime linked to scarcity.
To mitigate risk, the report calls for a coordinated national resilience forum bringing together government and business, alongside measures such as strengthening shipping infrastructure, targeted emergency cash transfers for vulnerable households and greater dietary diversification to reduce reliance on a narrow range of imported commodities.
For retailers and suppliers, the findings reinforce the importance of supply chain transparency, cyber security investment and contingency planning as geopolitical and climate risks continue to intensify.