- Retailers gain around 1.5 million new customers across November and December, but only one in five gained in December returns within three months.
- Product returns account for 10.4% of fashion's Golden Quarter revenue-almost double the level across general retail
- Customers spend an average of £183 more in Q4 than in a typical quarter, underlining the value of turning the festive surge into repeat business
The Christmas trading period brings UK retailers around 1.5 million customers who have not shopped with them in the previous 12 months. However, only 19% of those gained in December return within three months, according to new analysis from Reward, a global leader in customer engagement and commerce media.
The report, “Golden Quarter 2026: Turning Seasonal Spikes into Lasting Loyalty”, analyses UK retail transactions between January 2023 and July 2026.
It shows that the festive rush delivers a significant boost in spending and new customers, but much of that growth does not last beyond the season.
The festive customer surge is short-lived
The findings show that customers spend an average of £183 more during Q4 than in a typical quarter. The proportion shopping with a retailer for the first time also rises to around 18% in December, compared with 14-16% in a typical month.
However, only 19% of those customers make another purchase within three months, compared with 23-26% at other times of the year.
The difference is particularly stark in grocery - just 30% of customers who first shop with a grocer over Christmas return within three months, compared with 54% of those who start shopping there at other times of the year.
Returns put festive fashion gains under pressure
Low repeat purchasing is only part of the challenge. In fashion, returned purchase value equates to 10.4% of Q4 spend, almost double the 5.8% seen across general retail.
Beauty faces a different issue. The proportion of first-time customers reaches 21% during Q4, but the number returning within six months falls from 33% to 25%, showing that festive discovery does not always develop into regular purchasing.
Matthew Keylock, Chief Data & Analytics Officer at Reward, said: "Headline sales only tell part of the story. By looking at transaction insight over time, we can see whether the Christmas rush creates lasting customer relationships or simply a short-term spike, and how much value remains once returns are factored in.
"For retailers and brands, the opportunity is to use that intelligence to plan beyond December by identifying which customers are most likely to return, building the second purchase into Q4 campaigns and creating more relevant reasons for them to come back in January."
Reward's Golden Quarter 2026: Turning seasonal spikes into lasting loyalty report is available to download here: https://rewardinsight.aflip.in/Golden_Quarter_2026.html#page/1