UK retail sales volumes rose by 1.2 per cent in May as warm weather and early World Cup-related spending encouraged consumers to open their wallets, although industry experts warned that underlying demand remains subdued amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales volumes increased by 1.2 per cent during the month, driven by a 6.1 per cent rise in non-store retailing and a 3.2 per cent increase in household goods sales.
Analysts said the May heatwave played a significant role in boosting demand for seasonal products, with outdoor furniture, electrical goods and cooling appliances among the strongest-performing categories.
“The heatwave in May helped to boost consumers' moods and their willingness to spend,” Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK, said. “Summer essentials including outdoor furniture were the biggest winners as households upgraded their barbeques and soaked up the sunshine.”
Baker added that household electrical goods sales jumped 8.3 per cent as consumers purchased fans and televisions ahead of the FIFA World Cup, creating additional demand for home entertainment products.
While welcoming the increase in sales volumes, Baker cautioned that consumers remain cautious despite a modest improvement in sentiment.
“The start of the World Cup should help to lift spirits and will go some way in encouraging people to spend, but what's desperately needed is greater certainty,” she said.
“If the deal between the US and Iran holds up, and oil and fuel prices continue to come down, lessening the risk of interest rate hikes, this should provide a slightly better outlook for consumer spending.”
Nicholas Found, head of commercial content at Retail Economics, described the figures as a “welcome lift” for retailers but said the headline growth masked continued weakness across much of the market.
“Beneath the headline growth, this remains a market shaped by selective demand rather than renewed confidence,” he said. “Consumers are still value-conscious, deliberate and willing to shift channel or delay spend in search of the right proposition and promotion.”
Found noted that grocery volumes remain under pressure and that the strongest gains were concentrated in categories where favourable weather and seasonal events aligned with consumer needs.
He also warned that retailers continue to face rising wage, energy and operating costs while being expected to support affordability for shoppers.
“Looking ahead, the World Cup could provide the next spending catalyst, particularly if England make a deep run. But retailers know these moments tend to create pockets of demand rather than a broad uplift,” he said.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said there was little evidence that geopolitical tensions had affected consumer spending, with stable consumer confidence figures suggesting households had largely shrugged off concerns surrounding the conflict between the US and Iran.
“That said, the outlook still isn’t a rosy as we were anticipating at the start of the year,” he added. “Even with the drop back in oil prices, inflation will still probably peak at around 3.5 per cent this year. Combined with the weakness in the labour market and slow pay growth, real incomes look likely to stagnate over the rest of the year.”
Justin Parr, chief credit officer at trade finance provider Treyd, also cautioned against relying on short-term boosts.
“UK retailers can't always rely on temporary boosts from seasonal events and hot weather when structural challenges in the form of weak consumer confidence, elevated interest rates and high inflation are so deeply entrenched in the economy,” he said.
“Consumers are now so cautious that even previously strong micro-categories – products like matcha or premium spirits – are far less buoyant.”
Parr said beauty products remained one of the strongest-performing sectors, reflecting continued demand for affordable luxury purchases despite broader spending pressures.
Meanwhile, Atilla Kecsmar, chief executive of loyalty technology specialist Antavo, argued that retailers should focus on retaining existing customers rather than pursuing volume growth through discounting.
“Value-conscious shopping has become a habit rather than a temporary response to a squeeze,” he said. “The retailers best placed to weather the storm are the ones investing in retention rather than chasing short-term volume.”