UK food and drink supply chains could face growing disruption from water shortages, flooding and extreme weather as a potentially record-breaking ‘Super El Niño’ develops, with key sources of tea, coffee, palm oil and other grocery ingredients among those at risk.
Analysis by WaterAid has identified several potential drought and flood “impact zones” across Asia and Africa, warning that changing rainfall patterns could affect farms, factories and infrastructure supplying products to the UK. The organisation said the effects could ripple through international supply chains, creating additional risks for retailers and food and drink manufacturers.
The anticipated El Niño is expected to develop during the second half of 2026 and continue through much of 2027, with its peak forecast between September and November. The Met Office has warned that the UK could experience a series of intense summer heatwaves followed by heavier rainfall and storms.
For the UK grocery sector, some of the biggest risks are concentrated around key food-producing regions.
Sri Lanka, a major supplier of tea to the UK, could experience more extreme swings between wet and dry conditions, while Indonesia’s palm oil production could be affected by reduced rainfall. Palm oil is widely used in the manufacture of products including cereals, biscuits, chocolate, shampoo and soap.
East Africa could also see sharply contrasting weather conditions. WaterAid said Nairobi, a major supplier of flowers to UK supermarkets, is expected to become wetter, while Addis Ababa, an important coffee-exporting hub, could face drier conditions.
WaterAid’s findings come after separate analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimated that £8.9bn of UK trade from countries highly exposed to extreme heat could be at risk from worsening climate impacts. Those countries account for around 13% of UK imports of staple foods including rice, tea, coffee and chocolate.
Mai-Lan Ha, director of private sector policy and advocacy at WaterAid, warned that when factories and farms in affected regions run short of water, infrastructure is damaged by floods, or workers lose access to safe water and sanitation, the resulting impacts "ripple" across continents and through the supply chains.
"This research helps identify where those risks are most likely to emerge - whether prolonged drought in Cambodia or unpredictable flooding in Bangladesh - giving governments, businesses and investors the evidence they need to prepare before the next El Niño hits," she said.
For grocery retailers and food manufacturers, the potential disruption comes against an already challenging backdrop of higher costs, geopolitical uncertainty and pressure on food prices. A combination of drought, flooding and supply shortages could add another layer of volatility to commodity prices and the availability of key ingredients.