Retailers should brace for further cost pressure across a range of premium food items in 2026, with climate disruption, global demand and rising business costs all feeding through to shelf prices.
According to Oisín Hanrahan, the co-founder and chief executive of Keychain, roducts that many shoppers increasingly treat as affordable treats – including black truffles, Parmesan cheese, coconut milk and beef – are among those facing the sharpest inflation.
Hanrahan said late summer heatwaves across southern Europe have already damaged harvests, pushing up costs for truffles used both as standalone products and as ingredients in value-added lines.
“The black truffle you see in a supermarket is usually one of two things: the highly prized winter black truffle or the more common, less intense summer black truffle. Both varieties are notoriously sensitive to weather, and the harvests in France, Spain and Italy in 2025 were all affected by late summer heatwaves which translates to higher costs this year,” Hanrahan said.
He added that truffle-infused oils and pestos have also been affected, with packaging and glass inflation compounding the pressure on prices.
Coconut milk, a core ingredient for home cooking and plant-based shoppers, is also under strain. Hanrahan said wholesale prices are expected to reach record levels this year, with increases likely to be passed on to consumers.
“Increased storms, droughts and extreme weather in the Philippines, India and Indonesia is at the heart of the problem,” Hanrahan explained.
“In recent years, coconut trees have also been hit with new pests and diseases that have the potential to wipe out entire plantations. All at a time when there is increased consumer demand for dairy-free alternatives.”
Similarly, parmesan cheese suffered double-digit inflation last year, and that is set to continue this year according to Hanrahan, for which he blamed “production lags and trade dynamics”.
“Real Parmigiano Reggiano must be aged for a minimum of 12 months and often 24–36 months. This means the Parmesan you buy today was made during the peak of 2024-25’s high energy and feed costs. These historical costs are only just hitting the shelves now.
“Another factor is taste changes in the US and Asia where the cheese is becoming more popular. So the competition for authentic Parmesan has grown,” he added.
Meanwhile, the cost of beef has already risen by 40 per cent over the past 18 months and the upward trend will continue, Hanrahan said, driven by the “increased cost of feed, fuel and energy”.
“The price of beef is rising at six times the rate of beans and lentils. These cost increases will continue into 2026 and will fundamentally change consumer behaviour.”
Hanrahan said that while international factors had been the main problem, recent government policy has not helped.
“UK businesses have faced a significant increase in employer national insurance contributions and a higher national living wage. Supermarkets are large-scale employers so they have passed some of these costs on to consumers, which plays some part in keeping food inflation up.
“More recently, new environmental regulations mean manufacturers now must pay for the recycling costs of their packaging, which again means some of that buck stops with the consumer.”
Britain’s reliance on imports has also left retailers exposed to rising friction at the border.
“New checks and paperwork that came into effect in 2025 have led to some further cost rises,” Hanrahan said.