As 2026 begins, the convenience sector finds itself in a unique position – steady, resilient and quietly powering ahead while still weathering a mix of various external forces affecting its day-to-day operations.
Industry forecasts show the sector standing at roughly £48.8 billion in 2025, and all credible projections indicate that it will push beyond the £50 billion line next year.
The much-quoted IGD outlook places convenience at £56.2 billion by 2030, which, when broken down, means slow but dependable annual growth.
The opportunity, however, remains immense. The multiples certainly seem to think so, with Morrisons and ASDA intensifying their push into convenience formats.
Symbol groups, expected to hold over 38 per cent of the sector’s market value this year, are also now stepping up the game with store renovations, technological upgrades and deeper community reach.
Looking ahead this year, convenience stores are shedding their old “corner-shop” image.
Many local stores are now increasingly defined by fresh, chilled, grab-and-go, and meal-solution offers rather than bulk ambient groceries. In fact, the modern convenience store is becoming a hybrid of supermarket quick-stop, food-to-go outlet and community hub, tailored to a shopper on the move or someone needing an essential top-up.
Much of this momentum comes from a realignment in British shopping behaviour. Shoppers increasingly favour smaller baskets and more frequent trips, treating convenience stores as a dependable destination for top-ups, tonight’s dinner, drinks on the move or a last-minute treat.
Tobacco, confectionery, snacks, and chilled products remain anchor categories, while food to go is the new star, a division that has an optional offering to a year-round profit engine.
Convenience in 2026 is expected to be increasingly shaped by sharper shopper missions, fiercer competition and cost pressures that require retailers to be much more intentional in how they run their businesses.
According to a report by IGD, affordable and accessible, elevated experiences, simplified sustainability and health are expected to play as the key drivers of the sector.
As economic pressures persist, value will remain a top priority. Shoppers will seek products and services that deliver quality at a fair price, balanced by the growing expectations for instant gratification.
While price still matters, shoppers will be drawn to retailers and brands that offer something memorable, creating opportunities to build deeper emotional connections.
Shoppers expect government, retailers and brands to lead on sustainability. Making sustainable choices visible and their benefits clear will be key to driving engagement with shoppers, added the IGD report.
Health and wellness will be increasingly integrated into everyday choices. Shoppers will look to retailers and brands to help make informed purchase.
New rules, new costs
If 2026 has a defining theme for the convenience sector, it is definitely regulations, regulations and more regulations.
HFSS rules will be fully visible in stores as advertising restrictions settle in early in the year, with volume-based promotional restrictions coming in soon after in October.
The restrictions will apply to medium and large retailers (with 50 or more employees) offering prepacked food for sale in store and online, including franchises and symbol group stores.
Micro or small businesses (businesses with under 50 employees) are exempted from the volume price promotion and location restrictions.
This will be a change that matters more than it might at first appear. For decades, multibuys drove impulse purchases and helped move volume across ambient snacks, soft drinks and impulse items.
With those incentives gone, albeit only at bigger stores, shoppers buying habits are expected to see shifts.
These changes will force retailers to rethink their promotional calendars, cross-merchandising opportunities and front-of-store space.
Packaging reforms, particularly extended producer responsibility fees, will filter into supplier pricing throughout this year, creating new cost pressures for retailers who already face rising energy bills, wage increases and supply-chain volatility.
Furthermore, retailers should brace themselves on some regulations on high-caffeine energy drinks as well.
Under the proposals first announced in September this year, drinks that contain more than 150mg of caffeine per litre would be illegal for sale to anyone aged under 16. Tea, coffee and lower caffeine soft drinks are not set to be affected by the plans.
In the Government's consultation, the Department of Health and Social Care has proposed a six-month implementation period for all stakeholders to prepare for the ban.
Industry figures show that 80 per cent of convenience retailers already have some form of voluntary policy in place to restrict the sale of energy drinks to young people, as such drinks are labelled as “not recommended for children”, though to date there is no legal restriction in place on these products.
For most indies, the ban won’t change much but only to remain more extra vigilant around energy drink sales.
Also under consideration is Tobacco and Vapes Bill. The bill is going through the Committee stage in Parliament and is set to come into effect from Jan 1, 2027.
However, considering the landmark changes such as the generational smoking ban and vape flavour restrictions, the bill (if passed in its current state) will ensure retailers remain occupied during the last quarter of 2026 to make their store and staff compliant and ready.
Even the Deposit Return Scheme, officially expected in England and Northern Ireland in 2027, will cast a long shadow over next year, with planning conversations, equipment considerations and supplier guidance beginning much earlier.
Overall, retailers will be asked to absorb more admin, more complexity and more costs.
Speaking about costs, retailers across the UK will face business rate increases of up to 15 per cent next year despite government promises of the "lowest tax rates since 1991".
As pointed out Andrew Goodacre, CEO of Bira, the government had used the rates revaluation to mask what amounts to "tinkering at the edges" rather than genuine reform.
"We were promised transformation, but what we've got is a system that will see most independent retailers paying 15 per cent more in business rates next year – way above inflation.”
Another area that will add to the retailers’ cost is the rise in minimum wages to £12.71 from April. This year’s increase has been particularly challenging for many local shops, as the National Living Wage increases were coupled with increases in Employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and a reduction in the threshold at which they start paying NICs.
The most common consequences of increases in employment costs this year were lower profits for retailers and a rise in prices for consumers, with many store owners reducing the number of staff hours in the business.
New Players
This year, competition is also expected to stiffen. The multiples will continue pumping investment into smaller formats, refurbished forecourts and food-to-go propositions that feel increasingly premium.
Morrisons is particularly bullish on the convenience side. The supermarket has set its sights on the convenience sector, unveiling ambitious plans to convert up to 250 independent stores into Morrisons Daily franchise outlets over 2026, with the south and Midlands forming the epicentre of this drive.
The move signals a fresh commercial offensive from the supermarket giant as it seeks to cement its place in regions where its store presence is weakest, building on its 2022 acquisition and rebranding of 1,000 McColl’s sites.
The buzz is that shop owners are being courted by Morrisons with the promise of supermarket-standard product ranges, which now totals over 7,000 SKUs, including fresh food, meat, bakery and premium private label lines and the operational backing of Morrisons’ improved national supply chain.
On the other hand, Co-op is setting newer benchmarks in convenience retail with its new micro format.
At less than 600 sq ft, the store evolves Co-op’s convenience expertise, taking cues from around the world to meet consumer demand for fast, high-quality food-for-now by catering to meals and snacks throughout the day.
This new concept store by Co-op is focused on serving food “on-the-go”, offering breakfast, lunch and dinner in new formats, from traditional meal deals to the inclusion of a hot food serve-over counter and deli-inspired selections.
Co-op’s third new concept store was recently opened in Aylesbury following launches in Solihull High Street and Altrincham’s Stamford Quarter.
Symbol groups are also expected to remain equally aggressive in their expansions. The sector is expected to see bolder refits with some next-generation convenience formats set to make their mark and shake up the game for everyone.
In short, 2026 is not only about regulatory changes, rather it is about the cumulative pressure of cost, competition and compliance forming together in one concentrated period.
2026 shoppers
This year’s customer will be defined by a mix of caution and curiosity. Tight household budgets will mean value remains at the heart of their decision-making, but value now goes far beyond simply low prices.
The shape of the convenience mission will continue to evolve too.
In its recently released report, IGD identifies seven key trends that will define the direction of the food and grocery industry over the next 12 months.
Cybersecurity is expected to move from a back-office IT concern to a boardroom priority, as retailers recognise that resilience is now as critical as revenue.
Artificial intelligence will accelerate its role as retail’s silent engine room, driving efficiency, sharpening decision-making and redefining how businesses personalise, predict and plan.
Retail media, long discussed but unevenly adopted, is poised to mature at last, with certain markets on the brink of unlocking its full commercial potential.
On shelves, globalised flavours will travel further than ever before, supported by clearer segmentation, richer storytelling and a sharper understanding of diverse communities.
Convenience operators will continue to pivot towards food and drink designed to be consumed in minutes, not days, gradually reshaping assortments and pushing the channel deeper into the foodservice space.
Health missions will broaden too, as retailers offer more meaningful support for shoppers seeking better nutrition, balanced lifestyles and everyday wellbeing.
And underpinning it all is a renewed war on waste, a collective shift towards reducing food and packaging waste across the supply chain and in-store, as sustainability becomes both a commercial imperative and a consumer expectation.
Furthermore, shoppers are expected to look for consistency, reliability and visibility of deals. They will want premium own label alongside budget options, healthier choices that don’t feel expensive, chilled drinks and fresh meals that feel worth the spend and impulse treats that offer small but satisfying indulgence.
The shift towards alcohol alternatives, wellness drinks, protein-rich snacks and low-calorie treats will accelerate.
Louisa Newlove, Head of Wholesale, Route to Market and Field Sales, Suntory Beverage & Food GB&I, has high hopes from 2026, especially in sports and energy drinks.
“Consumers head to the soft drinks category for refreshment, hydration or functionality from brands that they know, love and trust.
“Sports drinks are currently seeing strong performance with 11.4 per cent volume growth year to date, led by strong double-digit growth from Lucozade Sport (+30.8 per cent).
“The energy segment also shows strong overall growth, led by stimulation, and is now worth over £2 billion,” Newlove said.
The soft drinks category is worth more than £11.7 billion and continues to show strong signs of growth, with sales up 5.3 per cent in volume and 6.7 per cent in value over the past year.
This upward trajectory is being driven by continued consumer demand for sport and stimulation drinks, as part of the functional beverage segment. These segments are expected to remain key growth areas as shoppers increasingly look for products that deliver both refreshment and added benefits, Newlove stated.
This year, retailers should continue to stock the leading selling brands in their respective segments of the soft drinks category.
Newlove from Suntory Beverage & Food GB&I said, “In addition, with several soft drinks segments currently showing strong growth, we know that consumers continue to turn to the category for refreshment, hydration or functionality for brands that they know, love and trust.”
Sports drinks are currently seeing very strong performance led by strong double-digit growth from Lucozade Sport. The energy segment also shows strong overall growth, led by stimulation and is now worth over £2 billion.
Retailers can make the most of this in the new year by placing such drinks in highly visible, impulse-driven areas such as front-of-store displays, checkout zones, and aisle ends.
Where relevant, it’s also important to stock soft drinks in the chillers for the grab-and-go occasion.
These locations are ideal for capturing shopper attention and encouraging trial, especially when new product launches are merchandised alongside the core range.
Speaking about core range, some lines have ruled the convenience stores for a long time to come. And 2026 is not going to be any different at that – just like the crisps, snacks and nuts (CSN) category that remains a major growth driver in the UK convenience and impulse market, now valued at over £5.3bn.
Convenience and food-to-go missions are also a key growth area, reflecting consumers’ demand for quick, affordable and convenient options. Price-marked packs (PMPs) are central to this trend and will continue delivering value in 2026.
As Stuart Graham, Head of Convenience and Impulse at KP Snacks reports, PMPs have a 71 per cent share of bagged snacks sales in independent stores and the top ten bestselling SKUs are all PMPs.
“Our PMP portfolio features some of the best-selling CSN SKUs and spans a wide range of price points, from 40p to £1.35. Holding a massive 37.6 per cent share of the large PMP segment, we are continually updating and expanding our PMP range to help our valued retail partners capitalise on the growing opportunity in the segment,” Graham said.
At-home consumption, particularly sharing formats, is a significant driver of category growth, which is expected to continue into 2026. The sharing segment, currently worth £2bn, is expanding as consumers seek indulgence and convenience for evenings-in with family and friends.
Portfolio coverage across nuts, popcorn, and pretzels enables retailers to meet demand for trusted brands such as Butterkist and KP Nuts while supporting incremental sales opportunities.
Graham notes, “Flavour-led growth taste remains the number one purchase driver in CSN. Bold, distinctive flavours continue to attract attention, with spicy, meaty, and nostalgic profiles performing strongly.
“We expect the trend to continue into 2026, and retailers should leverage both proven favourites and NPD to capture shopper interest and encourage trial.”
Consumer appetite for new products remains high, with 63 per cent of shoppers willing to try new snacks.
In 2026, retailers can benefit from targeted ranging strategies that combine core best-sellers with new flavour innovations to drive both incremental and repeat sales.
Health has been on Brits’ minds since around pandemic and continues to be one of the key decision-making factors.
This year, we expect the healthier food and drinks category to expand further as brands look to meet the growing demand for healthier alternatives from consumers.
Mondelēz International is already thinking ahead, as it offers several products within this category, such as belVita and Cadbury Brunch Light ranges.
Susan Nash, Trade Communications Manager at Mondelēz International, says, “BelVita offers a proposition of ‘Positive Energy’ with a recipe of five different wholegrains.
“The full range boasts moreish flavour combinations and textures, with the entire Soft Bakes selection now non-HFSS, after transitioning our bestselling belVita Soft Bake Choc Chip and belVita Choco Hazelnut SKUs to non-HFSS formulas at the end of 2024.”
For shoppers looking for the familiar taste of Cadbury in their mid-morning snack, Cadbury Brunch has also tapped into the growing trend towards healthier snacks with the launch of its Cadbury Brunch Light non-HFSS range.
In addition, the Cadbury Brunch range now includes a new value pack for the leading SKU in healthier biscuits, Chunky Choc Chip, which is stocked in major retailers across the UK from mid-August.
Cadbury Brunch Choc Chip cereal bars are packed with a mix of textured cereals mixed with a drizzle of honey, topped with chocolate chips and dipped in smooth Cadbury milk chocolate.
Another trend that is going to stay in 2026 is the dominance of the snack category.
Nash told Asian Trader, “We are a nation of snackers, with 88 per cent of the UK snacking at least once daily. In fact, we identified that Gen Z and Millennials have 15 per cent more snacking occasions than older consumers, so snacking in the UK is likely to continue to grow into 2026.
“Recent data has also shown that consumers are going back to brands, with candy category growth being driven by branded products, which outperform own label products,” says Nash.
Retailers winning in 2026
If the forecast for this year feels demanding, it is also rich with opportunity for store owners who make deliberate, bold choices.
The year will reward those who truly understand their store’s identity, consumer mindset as well as the country’s regulatory environment particularly around high-margin products like vapes.
Following the single-use vapes ban in June, 2025 saw a shift in consumer behaviour with the growing adoption of reusable devices.
Retailers have a key role to play in supporting adult vapers and smokers towards more responsible vaping practices, including waste disposal.
As informed by Angelo Yang, associate general manager- UK at ELFBAR, ahead of the ban, ELFBAR and LOST MARY launched reusable versions of their most popular and category-leading devices, were ELFBAR 600, LOST MARY BM600, and LOST MARY BM6000.
“Complementing these launches, ELFBAR and LOST MARY issued a two-page guide to help retailers answer customer FAQs and advise adult smokers and existing vapers on transitioning to reusable products,” Yang tells Asian Trader.
Post-ban, the first major poll of UK adult smokers and vapers, conducted by Opinium on behalf of ELFBAR and involving 6,000 respondents, indicated that 85 per cent of regular vapers were buying reusables.
Yang added, “To build on this progress and encourage device reuse, retailers should make refill pods and containers easily accessible by stocking a suitable range to complement their devices.
“Refills should be placed near devices to increase visibility – unseen is unsold, and displays should be responsibly positioned, ideally behind the counter, so adults can browse the products without handling them.”
The same survey found that while 77 per cent of vapers know that used refill pods and depleted devices should not be discarded in regular bins, access to recycling points remains a key barrier.
Yang from Elfbar advises retailers to have visible in-store collection points for used refill pods and depleted devices, ensuring compliance while giving customers another reason to return, with the opportunity to increase average basket spend across the store.
Given the ongoing challenge of illicit trade, retailers should also check that all products are compliant and MHRA-notified.
“Non-compliant or illegal products, or any suspicious activity, can be reported anonymously to Crimestoppers (0800555111) or local Trading Standards. This helps protect customers, communities and business interests, supporting a fairer market and responsible retailing,” Yang told Asian Trader.
In 2026, technology is expected to make deeper inroads in retail, particularly in terms of automation, self-checkouts, AI-enabled electronic shelf labels, and smarter EPOS.
Digital engagement will also separate the leaders from those merely keeping pace. Whether it is a simple digital loyalty system, regular and engaging social media posts, or partnering with an instant delivery platform, the time is ripe to take the big leap into the future.
As parcels, returns and digital services continue to advance, retailers who embrace their role as community service hubs will enjoy a natural increase in footfall.
Cost discipline will be crucial. Energy optimisation, tighter waste management, better ordering discipline, training staff in fresh-food handling and stronger loss-prevention measures will all play a role in protecting margin.
With crime still a major concern, investment in CCTV, improved visibility and staff confidence will matter just as much as product investment.
Looking ahead
As 2026 shivers its way forward through snowy January, one message rings loud and clear: the convenience sector isn’t just keeping pace, it’s reinventing itself in real time. Despite the regulatory noise, rising costs, supermarket aggression and shifting shopper missions, the channel remains one of the most dynamic, responsive and opportunity-rich corners of British retail.
Convenience is no longer defined by four walls and a till. It is shaped by hot food counters and global flavours, by premium soft drinks and protein snacks, by healthier biscuits and low-sugar indulgence, by refill pods and recycling points, by delivery partnerships, loyalty touchpoints, and neighbourhood storytelling.
Above all, retailers should regard 2026 with a mindset of evolution rather than reaction. The year will belong to those who adapt quickly, communicate clearly, and deliver a store experience that feels modern, fresh and local.
Next year will test retailers, no doubt about it. Regulation will push, costs will pull, and competition will nip at their heels.
Convenience retail has always thrived by staying close to the customer, and that truth will become even more important in 2026.
Costs will rise, but manageable for those who prepare. Shoppers will keep visiting, but with sharper expectations. For those willing to refine, refresh and rethink, 2026 won’t simply be another challenging year. It will be a year of definition, one that shapes the next phase of British convenience retail for years to come.