Unseasonably warm September weather kept shoppers reaching for summer staples, shows the latest data by NielsenIQ released today (Oct 13).
The lingering summer mood also boosted demand for global flavours and convenient meals while autumn favourites such as soup and hot chocolate lost ground, as consumers continued to rein in spending on non-essential items.
According to the latest data released NIQ, total till sales at major supermarkets increased (+1.4%) in the last four ending 3rd October 2026.
NIQ data shows that cautious consumer spending continued to constrain the market, with unit sales almost flat, rising just +0.1% year on year.
This growth was further subdued with inflation being lower than it was this time last year. The latest data also shows that while shoppers made more frequent visits to stores (+1.8%) in the last four weeks, the average spend per visit remained broadly unchanged at £18.58, reflecting continued caution around household grocery budgets.
Grocery baskets remain in summer mode
Unseasonably warm weather in September kept summer favourites firmly in UK shoppers’ baskets, while traditional autumn comforts struggled to gain traction. There was an increase in sales for mineral water (17.4%), soft drinks (12.9%) and ice cream (11.7%), suncare sales also grew 8.6%, suggesting shoppers were continuing to enjoy the prolonged summer weather. 2
Summer habits also led shoppers to embrace global flavours and convenient meal options. Japanese (+17%) and Mexican (+14%) cooking sauces recorded strong value growth over the last four weeks, while branded fresh ready meals grew +16%, suggesting demand for quick, flavourful meals remained strong.
Meanwhile, premium ranges continued to drive growth across own-label products.
However, this shift impacted more ‘autumnal’ categories, including ambient soup sales, which fell -5.4% and hot beverages declined -2.8%. Hot chocolate saw the sharpest drop, with sales down -11%.
Beyond the seasonal split, shoppers continued to rein in non-essential spending. Beer, wine and spirits sales fell -0.6%, while general merchandise declined -4.6%, suggesting pressure on household budgets is extending beyond the weekly grocery shop.
Rapid grocery delivery taps into cravings for drinks and treats
Moreover, online grocery sales exceeded £2bn in the latest four weeks, growing +9.9% in value, while unit growth accelerated to +6.2%, outpacing the wider market and underlining the continued shift towards online shopping.
Rapid delivery is also gaining ground, now accounting for 10.5% of online grocery sales, with its customer base growing +21% year on year. But the difference lies not just in how shoppers buy groceries, but what they choose to buy.
NIQ data shows that drinks, ice cream and chocolate account for a greater share of spending through rapid delivery than through traditional online supermarket orders. Alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages make up 23% of rapid delivery sales value, compared with 16% through traditional online grocery. These figures point to a distinct role for rapid delivery in the grocery market, currently catering to immediate needs and impulse purchases alongside the more planned, larger online shop.
In terms of retailer performance, in the last 12 weeks Tesco sales increased (+1.9%), followed by Morrisons (+1.1%) which overtook Sainsbury's (+0.7%). Asda sales declined -0.5% over the 12 week period, although performance improved in the latest four weeks as sales returned to growth (+0.7%). Lidl sales growth was +6.8%.
Ocado (+17.2%) and M&S (+10.7%) continued to outperform the wider market. M&S’ strong performance has been supported by growing social media interest in its product launches, with Director of Product Development Kathryn Turner attracting attention on TikTok, reflecting the retailer’s ability to turn product buzz into shopper demand. Meanwhile, Waitrose is tapping into growing appetite for food-focused content through its Dish podcast, using culinary storytelling to deepen engagement with consumers.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NielsenIQ, said: “September is always a challenging month for food retailers, with little reason for shoppers to spend more and many preferring to save money ahead of what is likely to be a more expensive end to the year. While the Indian summer helped purchasing in drinks and snacks, it also contributed to shoppers failing to make the transition to autumnal spending which typically drives grocery sales.”
Watkins continued: “It’s clear that consumers remain concerned about their personal finances. Yet, our data shows that shoppers are continuing to make selective trade-offs between value and quality.
"More than half (55%) say that if they are going to spend more, they would prefer to choose something that is clearly premium, highlighting opportunities for retailers to encourage affordable indulgence and trading up during the upcoming festive period.”
Watkins concludes: “Looking ahead, retailers will be seeking fresh momentum as they enter the crucial final quarter of the year.
"With the October half-term holidays and the start of Christmas advertising and promotional campaigns approaching, there will be opportunities to stimulate spending through product innovation, premium meal solutions and compelling value propositions that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers.
"And if that happens, we anticipate Total Till growth of up to +2.5% this Christmas. If so, this would put supermarkets in a similar position as last year.”