Fresh pressure is building on UK grocery prices after extreme heat, drought and wildfires across Europe damaged key crops, raising fears of higher import costs for everything from salad vegetables to olive oil.
With British supermarkets heavily reliant on European produce, the continent's scorching summer is expected to push up the cost of staple foods as harvests shrink and production costs rise.
Farmers across Europe are reporting significant crop losses after weeks of record-breaking temperatures, prolonged drought and widespread wildfires. Agricultural groups have warned of lower yields for cereals, vegetables, grapes and olives, prompting the European Commission to downgrade harvest forecasts for several key crops.
The UK could feel the impact particularly in fresh produce, olive oil and cereals, as suppliers increasingly compete for reduced volumes from major producing countries including Spain, France, Italy and Greece.
French vegetable growers have reported losing thousands of tonnes of produce worth tens of millions of euros. Légumes de France, the country's vegetable growers' association, said crops including salad leaves, carrots, leeks, garlic and onions had been severely affected, with production of some vegetables expected to fall by as much as half because of the lack of rain.
Spain, one of Britain's biggest food suppliers, is also forecasting a sharp decline in cereal production. The country's agriculture ministry expects its 2026-27 cereal harvest to fall from 24 million tonnes last year to just over 18.5 million tonnes, even before factoring in the damage caused by recent wildfires.
Meanwhile, the European Commission has lowered its harvest forecasts across several major crops, cutting expectations for sunflower production by 7 per cent, grain maize by 6 per cent and potatoes and soya beans by 3 per cent.
The heatwave has also intensified concerns over olive oil supplies. Olive groves have been damaged by fires, drought and pest outbreaks across Greece, Italy and Portugal, while drought stress continues to affect Spain, Europe's largest olive oil producer.
The average price of a one-litre bottle of extra virgin olive oil in UK supermarkets remains above £7 and industry experts warn prices could rise further later this year as the new harvest comes to market.
While countries such as Turkey, Italy and Romania are expected to produce stronger harvests for some crops, the broader outlook remains challenging, with retailers and suppliers likely to face higher sourcing costs in the months ahead.
The latest warnings underline the growing vulnerability of UK food supply chains to extreme weather across Europe, with consumers likely to feel the effects through higher prices and tighter availability of some imported products later this year.