- Grocery price inflation ticks up to 2.6% over the four weeks to 1st November.
- Sales of hand sanitiser jump by 83% after launch of the government’s ‘Be Ready’ campaign.
- More than three million households purchase a pumpkin in October.
Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 2.2 per cent in the four weeks to 1st November 2026 compared with a year ago, according to the latest data from Worldpanel by Numerator. Like-for-like grocery price inflation remains relatively subdued but rose slightly to 2.6 per cent, up from 2.5 per cent in the previous four weeks.
“Grocery price inflation continued to increase after slowing over the summer,” said Fraser McKevitt, Head of Retail and Consumer Insight at Worldpanel by Numerator. “While prices are rising at a slower rate than at the beginning of the year, the direction of travel has changed. Household budgets have already taken a hit after the latest increase to the energy price cap arrived with the cold weather in October, and shoppers will be keeping a close eye on prices at the tills this winter.”
Shoppers heed government’s ‘Be Ready’ advice
Sales of essential supplies jumped in the ten days from 22 October after the launch of the government’s ‘Be Ready’ public awareness campaign, which encourages households to prepare for up to three days in the event of disruption to essential services.
In the ten days after the campaign was launched, sales of hand sanitiser increased by 83 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year, with sales of bottled water (+67 per cent) and tinned and jarred goods (+37 per cent) also rising. The number of people buying tinned meat each day after the launch of the campaign rose by 43 per cent, equivalent to an extra 400,000 shoppers a day, yet the typical amount bought remained at around 500g in terms of pack size.
“Shoppers clearly took notice of the ‘Be Ready’ campaign, but this wasn’t panic buying, with less than a third of households buying bottled water in October,” he added. “Growth came from more people adding the recommended items on the government’s checklist to their weekly shop, not from shoppers piling their trolleys high, which is very much in line with what the government wanted households to do.”
Price of a pumpkin drops as shoppers get into the Halloween spirit
Over the month of October, 3.3 million households purchased a pumpkin, with the number sold up 10 per cent year on year. The average price paid for a pumpkin stood at £1.20, 12 per cent lower than last year, providing some small but welcome relief for shoppers looking to celebrate Halloween.
Tubs of sugar confectionery were the standout ‘trick or treat’ performer, with sales up by 28 per cent compared to last year.
Retailers enter ‘golden quarter’ with Black Friday on the horizon
Retailers are now firmly in the so-called "golden quarter", the peak spending period comprising major commercial events including Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas.
Despite pressure on household budgets, Black Friday week remains one of the biggest moments in the shopping calendar, and shoppers spent £4.4 billion across general merchandise categories last year, up 1 per cent on the previous year and nearly double total spend in an average week.*
McKevitt said: “Many households will be planning their Christmas spending more carefully this year, making Black Friday an important moment for shoppers looking to make their money go further on big-ticket items, while retailers will be hoping it gets the golden quarter off to a strong start.”
Image: Worldpanel by Numerator
Ocado delivers joint record market share
Sales at Ocado grew by 12.3 per cent over the 12 weeks to 1st November 2026 versus the same time a year ago. This represents the 30th consecutive period of double-digit growth, and the online-only specialist achieved a joint record market share of 2.3 per cent, up from 2.1 per cent in 2025. M&S, part owner of the Ocado retail business, separately increased grocery sales through its stores in the same time period by 14.6 per cent.**
Spending through the tills at Lidl increased by 6.6 per cent, resulting in a market share gain of 0.4 percentage points, the greatest of any retailer, and it now accounts for 8.6 per cent of all sales. The third retailer to increase share compared with last year was Waitrose, moving up to 4.5 per cent from 4.4 per cent as sales rose by 2.2 per cent.
Sales at Morrisons rose by 2.0 per cent, slightly ahead of the market, delivering a stable market share of 8.3 per cent. Tesco, Britain’s largest grocer, now commands a 27.8 per cent share, with sales 1.2 per cent higher over the latest 12 weeks. Meanwhile, sales at Sainsbury’s increased by 0.8 per cent to give a share of 15.5 per cent - the highest since April.
New Asda CEO David Potts starts his role with a market share of 11.3 per cent, as more than half of households shopped in its stores or online over the last three months.
Sales were up by 0.4 per cent at Aldi, Britain’s fourth largest grocer, taking share to 10.4 per cent. Co-op’s sales were 0.7 per cent higher than a year ago, meaning the convenience specialist now accounts for 5.3 per cent of the market, while Iceland takes a 2.2 per cent share.
*Worldpanel Plus w/e 30 November 2025. Categories included: appliances, consumer electronics, toys, beauty, fashion, pet, toiletries, gifts, homeware & arts & crafts & entertainment. All retail outlets including online.
**Please note: with a higher proportion of clothing and general merchandise in its sales mix, M&S does not fall under the definition of ‘grocers’ using the Till Roll methodology on which the Worldpanel Grocery Market Share release is based. For this reason, a comparable market share number is not provided for M&S. The M&S growth number quoted in this update is for FMCG sales only, while the figures for grocers in the Grocery Market Share table cover total spending through supermarkets’ tills.