Key Summary
- Till sales rose +5.8%, peaking at +7.9% during the hottest week.
- Big gains for soft drinks, ice cream, strawberries, and cider.
- Shoppers made more trips but bought fewer items each time.
UK supermarket sales surged in early July thanks to sunny weather and summer sports, though cautious shopper behaviour and inflation concerns continue to shape retail trends, shows a recent report.
According to the latest data from NIQ released today (July 23), total till sales growth at UK supermarkets soared (+5.8 per cent) in the last four weeks ending 12th July 2025, up from (+3.8 per cent) recorded in June according to new data released today by NielsenIQ (NIQ).
With three heatwaves in four weeks and the hottest week of the year ending July 12, the sunny spell hit just as the summer of sport peaked. Big events like Wimbledon and the Women’s Euros helped move the dial on impulse purchasing, boosting incremental spend across categories. In this week sales peaked at +7.9 per cent.
And, as shoppers looked to stay cool in the continued warm weather, sales of air conditioners, fans and air treatments (humidifiers) increased +135 per cent.
The four weeks saw an increase in unit sales for soft drinks (+14 per cent ), with value sales up (+21 per cent).
There was also double digit growth in value sales for frozen food (+12 per cent) - driven by ice cream and desserts. General merchandise also saw a lift in value sales, helped by more outdoor living and dining.
The warm weather also boosted sales of classic summer staples: cider saw a +11.2 per cent rise in value while fresh cream surged +13.8 per cent. Strawberries remained a seasonal favourite, with £132 million spent over the period (+18.5 per cent) and 58.6 million units sold (+15.3 per cent).
NIQ data shows that shoppers, however, continue to manage budgets carefully with the number of items bought per shopping trip continuing to be less than last year (-4 per cent) balanced by more shopping occasions (+5.6 per cent) as shoppers visit stores more often to hunt down savings across supermarkets, discounters, and value retailers.
Retailers are doubling down on value-for-money campaigns and focussing on price cuts delivered through member loyalty schemes. However, overall promotional activity has held steady, with 23% of value sales coming from promotions, just slightly down from 24 per cent last year.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NielsenIQ, said, “While Asda sales are still in decline, the trend is improving.
Despite the average spend per visit being down due to the deflationary impact of Rollback prices, there are green shoots of recovery as the percentage of shoppers visiting Asda held at just over 50 per cent over the last 12 weeks. And in the last four weeks, visits were up just over 5 per cent which is in line with the industry.”
Watkins adds, “The summer holiday season is now in full swing, but consumer purchasing habits tend to become less predictable during this period.
"The outlook for the next six weeks depends on two key factors: First, with the rising cost of eating out, shoppers may decide to prepare more meals at home.
"Second, inflation is expected to climb further, which could affect how much shoppers are able to spend. Nevertheless, price competition among retailers will give shoppers more opportunities to save by comparing prices and shopping around.”