Shoppers are opting to dine in more, driving premium own-label growth, with NIQ experts expecting food sales to hold steady through November before accelerating in December depending on ad campaigns and Black Friday spend shifts.
According to new data released today (Nov 12) by NielsenIQ (NIQ), total till sales at UK supermarkets rose to +3.2 per cent in the last four weeks ending 1st November 2025,
This is a marked slowdown from the +4.1 per cent growth recorded in September, likely due to shoppers’ anticipation of seasonal savings and promotional days like Black Friday in the lead up to Christmas as well as the pressure on household finances from continued inflation.
As retail spend continues to slow amidst ongoing economic pressures, Black Friday at the end of November will be an even more important event to kickstart shopper spending.
NIQ data shows that 45 per cent of households took part in Black Friday last year and it is now regarded as one of the biggest online shopping days across both FMCG and wider ecommerce.
During Amazon Big Deals Day this year, personal care and beverages also saw a market share uplift as consumers looked to save on higher-priced items. This behaviour may also have taken the edge off some FMCG spend as the average spend per visit declined (-0.6 per cent).
With this in mind, across FMCG in the last four weeks the only super categories with unit growth were dairy (+1.6 per cent), meat, fish and poultry (+1.4 per cent) and fresh produce (+0.4 per cent).
In confectionary unit sales fell (-3.1 per cent), despite Halloween being a typical time for shoppers to indulge in sweet treats, and the uplift (+4.4 per cent)in value sales was primarily due to inflation.
NIQ data also shows that in-store visits were up (+3.9 per cent) and comes as retailers continue to entice shoppers with price cuts from loyalty schemes, with the amount of the shopping basket purchased on promotion continuing to make up 24 per cent of sales.
In terms of retailer performance, Ocado (+13.8 per cent) remains the fastest growing retailer whilst Sainsbury’s (+5.5 per cent) and Tesco (+4.8 per cent) continue to increase market share, widening the gap with Asda (where sales fell -6.5 per cent) and Morrisons (+1.9 per cent). Momentum continues to grow at a strong pace for Waitrose (+4.8 per cent) and M&S (+9.6 per cent).
Sales at Lidl (+10.7 per cent) grew ahead of Aldi (+4.4 per cent) with both retailers expected to maintain strong sales growth with more new stores opening in the last months of 2025.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NielsenIQ, said: “The slowdown in growth in the last four weeks was not helped by continued inflation, fragile consumer confidence and a generally mild October and any discretionary spending power has not translated into extra food and drink sales at food retailers during the Halloween half term.