Online grocery is returning to growth after several years of decline, but the channel’s resurgence is reshaping – not replacing – the role of the physical store, according to new analysis from SymphonyAI.
The tech firm’s fourth annual Grocery E-commerce Benchmark, billed as the sector’s largest longitudinal study of digital grocery behaviour, shows that after three years of contraction, online channels are once again attracting new and returning customers. However, SymphonyAI argues the strongest commercial gains now lie in converting that digital engagement into store visits, loyalty and higher-value missions.
“This is not a return to pre-pandemic behavior – it’s the emergence of a new economic model, powered by AI,” said Manish Choudhary, president, retail at SymphonyAI. “Online grocery may be growing, but it’s the retailers who rapidly connect digital insights to the physical store – personalizing every in-aisle experience, every bundle, every promotion – who will win.”
The study tracks 1.3 billion transactions from 68 million households across the US and Europe, revealing that online grocery is increasingly driven by small, mission-based baskets such as forgotten items and quick replenishment. This shift marks a break from the larger weekly shops that once defined the channel – and places new pressure on retailers to use digital insights and AI to reinvent the in-store experience.
AI powering a new grocery model
The report highlights several structural changes shaping the industry’s next phase:
- Customer acquisition is driving growth, with a 12 per cent rise in new and reactivated online shoppers year on year. Retailers using AI-driven propensity modelling are reportedly best placed to convert these customers into regular store visitors.
- Small baskets now dominate online ordering, creating opportunities for retailers to use personalised recommendations and promotions to encourage more profitable bundled or full-basket missions in store.
- Even loyal digital shoppers are visiting less frequently, adding urgency for stores to become more personalised and efficient through the use of real-time digital signals.
- Subscriptions are emerging as a new lever for frequency, with AI-based insights helping trigger in-store subscription pickups and loyalty incentives.
These trends reflect wider market pressures – from consumers’ time scarcity to heightened price sensitivity – and underline the need for stores to become more responsive and data-led, SymphonyAI said.
Regional strategies diverge
According to the benchmark, US and European retailers are taking different routes to omnichannel growth.
- US grocers are prioritising acquisition and omnichannel expansion, using digital behaviour cues to tailor outreach and increase store traffic.
- European retailers, facing a more mature digital landscape, are focusing on loyalty and frequency recovery through AI-powered synchronisation of online offers and in-store experiences.
SymphonyAI said its retail platform is designed to help grocers translate digital intent into in-store value by personalising promotions, refining merchandising and improving operational execution. Its CINDE Connected Retail platform – which powers merchandising, forecasting, retail media and store operations – is pitched as a way to:
- precisely identify and target high-value digital shoppers, converting them into loyal in-store customers
- personalise in-store experiences, recommendations, and promotions based on digital mission signals and predictive models
- optimise assortment, store layouts, and pricing dynamically with AI-driven, hyper-localised insights
- detect and mitigate churn risk by activating loyalty and subscription programmes in store
- synchronise digital campaigns and in-store activations for maximum omnichannel impact
As online channels mature, SymphonyAI argues that the next decade of grocery growth will be defined by how effectively retailers “move from intelligence to real-world execution” and bridge the gap between digital behaviour and in-store engagement.