October’s footfall figures declined marginally as compared to last year, shows latest industry data, highlighting concerns for a policy environment that supports growth and investment.
According to data by British Retail Consortium (BRC), total UK footfall decreased by 1.1 per cent in October (YoY), down from +3.3 per cent in September. High Street footfall decreased by 3.6 per cent in October (YoY), down from +0.9 per cent in September.
Retail Park footfall increased by 4.8 per cent in October (YoY), down from +7.3 per cent in September. Shopping Centre footfall decreased by 1.6 per cent in October (YoY), down from +2.3 per cent in September.
Meanwhile, footfall increased year-on-year in three of the devolved nations, with Northern Ireland rising by 1.3 per cent, Scotland by 0.8 per cent, and Wales by 0.4 per cent, while England experienced a decline of 1.5 per cent.
Commenting on the figures, Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said, "October’s footfall figures showed a marginal decline compared to last year, primarily due to half-term moving out of the comparison. Despite the decline, retail parks continued to attract shoppers, as they saw positive footfall growth for the third consecutive month. Across England, the northern towns performed best, with Leeds and Liverpool seeing positive footfall last month.
"Retailers have seen footfall consistently fall since the pandemic. Thriving high streets and town centres are not only good for local economies but also form a key part of the social fabric of communities up and down the country. With 6,000 stores closing in the past five years, retailers now need a policy environment that supports growth and investment.”
Andy Sumpter, Retail Consultant EMEA for Sensormatic, commented, "After the positive footfall performance we saw in September, October’s footfall dropped back into negative figures compared to the year before. While this will be disappointing for many retailers, who may have hoped the positive figures in September would spell the start of a more consistent uptick in store traffic, it perhaps shouldn’t come as a surprise.
"We expect to see a bumpy recovery as a myriad of market conditions - from the cost of living to shaky consumer confidence around the Budget – continue to make footfall performance volatile. Retailers now need to look ahead and focus their efforts on the rest of the Golden Quarter, delivering compelling reasons to visit in order to drive ambient footfall and sales during the key Christmas trading period.”
On average, each of the 5.5 million small and medium-sized businesses (SMB) in the UK lost almost £11,000 this year through fraud, claims a new research.
Commissioned by Mollie, the study found that over half (54 per cent) of UK SMBs were the victims of online fraud in 2024.
Specifically, more than half (58 per cent) dealt with phishing scams in the past 12 months, where scammers pretended to be trusted companies to steal their personal information through email. Additionally, 42 per cent dealt with refund fraud, where customers manipulated refund policies to obtain reimbursements for products or services they were not entitled to.
Similarly, three in ten (30 per cent) said they experienced attempts at account takeovers, where unauthorized parties tried to gain access to their online business accounts. Additionally, a quarter (26 per cent) experienced chargebacks on completely legitimate transactions, and over two in ten (23 per cent) faced carding attacks, where stolen cards were tested at checkout, leading to spikes in failed transactions.
In addition to the financial toll, online fraud is impacting the productivity of small businesses. Mollie’s research found that they spend an average of 15 days—or 120 hours—each year managing and mitigating fraud-related issues. This time commitment diverts resources from core business operations, further straining already limited budgets.
Richard Wivell, Marketing Manager at Nemesis Now, said, "Experiencing gateway attacks was a costly and stressful ordeal for our business. We dealt with fake orders, refunded fraudulent payments, and worked overtime with developers to manage thousands of malicious requests.
"Unfortunately, the lack of urgency from our previous provider forced us to take matters into our own hands working with our trusted web development agency to identify vulnerabilities and blocking attacks.”
Dave Smallwood, UK Managing Director of Mollie, said, “As the backbone of the UK economy, it’s crucial that UK SMBs –especially e-commerce ones– are equipped with practical solutions to manage their money and fight fraud effectively. Many small businesses lack the resources to cover a single fraudulent incident, and without support and action, we risk stifling business innovation and growth.
"Fighting fraudulent activity is taking resources away from day-to-day business operations, and we need this to change. We need to provide businesses large and small with access to the support needed to safeguard against increasingly sophisticated threats so they can focus on the job at hand."
UK food businesses are expected to face significant financial challenges in 2025, grappling with multiple cost pressures. The cost of food items is predicted to rise by up to 4.9 per cent next year, according to the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD).
IGD’s latest Viewpoint Special Report, “Hungry For Growth”, highlights food inflation as one of the most significant challenges for UK households. However, it also places the increase in food prices within a wider context of overall industry pressures.
IGD’s forecast for food inflation in 2025 is based on a full overview of all the cost pressures on food businesses for the next 12 months. While energy and commodity prices will remain stable albeit a little higher in 2025, there will be significantly increased employment and regulatory costs for food businesses in the coming year which will mean food inflation could hit anywhere between 2.4 per cent - 4.9 per cent.
In July 2024, IGD forecast that retail food inflation in 2025 would average 2.1 per cent. This forecast has been revised upward principally on the basis of measures announced in the budget.
In forming these new forecasts, IGD assumed that major policy changes raising business costs will arrive in three phases over the next year:
April: rising costs to employment staff due to increases in National Insurance and National Living Wage
July: rising costs of food imports due to implementation of the Windsor Agreement framework with the EU
Oct: first payments are due to fall on Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), increasing costs on packaging
IGD estimates that the food sector will only be able to absorb between 20 per cent - 40 per cent of these costs, meaning the remainder will be passed onto the consumer.
Food inflation is likely to continue to exceed inflation in other items, not just in 2025 but also 2026.
“We do not see food prices going down in the foreseeable future," said IGD Chief Economist James Walton. "The rising cost of living, combined with increased employment and regulatory costs, will keep inflation elevated. Consumers will undoubtedly look for ways to save money, but the impact of these cost pressures will be felt across the economy.
"For the food sector, the increased financial burdens are becoming harder to absorb, particularly for smaller players in the sector. The cumulative impact of multiple changes landing within a short period of time will drive significant cost into all food businesses across the UK.”
Most (70 per cent) of consumers are more likely to visit the high street after online retailers introduce return fees, shows a recent survey, indicating a shift in consumer buying habits.
According to the findings from consumer insights platform Vypr, 70 per cent of shoppers say they are now more likely to visit bricks and mortar stores rather than shop online due to the added costs of returning unwanted items.
The research highlights a growing dissatisfaction with the rise of online return fees, with 47 per cent of consumers stating they would avoid purchasing from retailers that charge for returns as they don’t believe their products are unique enough. A further 27 per cent said they would stop shopping with such retailers as a matter of principle.
While online shopping continues to be a dominant force, the research signals potential cracks in its convenience. Brands like Boohoo and ASOS, which have recently introduced return charges, may be particularly vulnerable as shoppers lack strong brand loyalty.
27 per cent of consumers said they think these retailers offer similar products to their competitors, making it easier to shop around for better deals. 53 per cent of those surveyed will be buying less from ASOS after the charges were introduced and 51 per cent shop less with Boohoo.
The growing frustration with online shopping is further exacerbated by issues with sizing and quality. According to Vypr’s survey, the most common reasons consumers return online purchases are due to items being smaller than expected (26 per cent), lower quality than anticipated (17 per cent), and larger-than-expected sizing (14 per cent).
Ben Davies, founder of Vypr, commented, “The rise in return charges reflects a broader shift in consumer sentiment. As confidence in online sizing and quality inconsistencies drops, many shoppers are reconsidering where they spend their money. One in 10 consumers say they typically order multiple sizes of the same item, knowing they’ll return some.
"Retailers must do more to improve size guides and product descriptions to help shoppers make better-informed decisions from the outset.
"As online shopping becomes more expensive and less distinct, it’s possible we could be witnessing a return to high street shopping — not only as a more reliable option but also as a more sustainable one, given the reduced packaging waste compared to online purchases.”
The research also reveals growing support for independent retailers, with 60 per cent of consumers now preferring to shop with smaller, independent brands over larger, fast-fashion retailers. Additionally, 64 per cent of respondents reported receiving better customer service from independents, compared to the experience with major online retailers.
Retailers should prepare for late rush of shoppers looking for fresh food, centre pieces for the dinner table and last-minute gifts, suggests experts forecasting that grocery spend is set to hit £10 billion in the two weeks leading up to Dec 21 with £6bn being spent at the grocery multiples
According to new data released NIQ today (11), total till sales growth steadied at UK supermarkets (+3.7 per cent) in the last four weeks ending Nov 30 2024, down from 4.0 per cent in the previous month. This slowdown in growth is likely due to milder weather, Black Friday distraction and shoppers holding out until early December for the big Christmas shop.
NIQ data also reveals with shoppers actively looking for discounts, over the last four weeks there was a boost to visits to stores (+5.7 per cent) ahead of online shopping occasions (+0.6 per cent). As a result online share of FMCG was at +13.1 per cent compared to last year +13.4 per cent.
Savvy shoppers capitalise on promotions
The percentage of sales purchased on promotion increased to 25 per cent from 24 per cent in October. Shoppers are seeking out savvy ways to save money and retailers and brands are hoping to drive incremental sales and basket spend through both more in-store promotional activity and increased loyalty app discounts.
"Personalised Savings" is thought to have unlocked this discretionary spend with 38 per cent of households set to use vouchers and points saved up for their Christmas groceries this year.
Black Friday also coincided with payday at the end of the month, seeing value growth sustained at the Grocery Multiples in the last week of November. Shoppers cashed in on higher ticket priced items while on promotion, such as 25 per cent off six bottles of wine and beauty and gifting offers.
However, this likely resulted in holding back spend on other items such as storage cupboard food, frozen and household basics where growth was flat.
Health and beauty wins out
In terms of category growth, NIQ data shows that the Health & Beauty category experienced an uplift in sales (+6.9 per cent), likely helped by Black Friday discounts. However, beer, wines and spirits (BWS) continue to struggle as value sales fell (-3.8 per cent) and there was no corresponding increase in unit sales (-2.5 per cent) compared to a year ago.
Looking ahead to Christmas celebrations with family, NIQ data reveals that 50 per cent of shoppers still expect to dine with turkey while 22 per cent opt for chicken, with beef following at 20 per cent. And 12 per cent opting for vegetarian or vegan alternatives.
Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK Head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: “Sales are going to accelerate in the two weeks up to the 21st December. The biggest single week will be week ending 21st December with £6bn being spent at the grocery multiples, which is a third of the 4 weekly spend in one week.
"Food retailers can prepare for this late rush starting next week as shoppers will be looking for fresh food, centre pieces for the dinner table and last-minute gifts, including a trade up to premium items”.
Watkins adds: “Last year with food inflation at 7 per cent (BRC NIQ SPI), volumes fell in December 2023 however, this year NIQ expects volume growth of around +1 per cent.
"Even with 50 per cent of households saying it is important for them to make savings on their Christmas groceries this year, 66% still expect they will spend the same or more than last year (NIQ Homescan Survey) and 38 per cent intend to use points or vouchers saved up. So there are reasons to be cheerful”.
More than two in five UK retail employees (43 per cent) were at risk of quitting their jobs between July and September this year, an 11 per cent increase from the previous three months of 2024, according to the Retail Trust and AlixPartners’ latest Retail People Index.
The index, which surveyed 1,100 UK retail employees in July, August and September, found the percentage of people working whilst physically or mentally unwell, also increased to 41 per cent over this time. This is a 14 per cent year-on-year increase, and a 7 per cent rise from the previous quarter of 2024.
Younger retail workers, aged 19 to 24, and LGBTQ+ employees had the biggest ‘flight risk’, or propensity to quit, of 47 per cent, due to feeling more anxious and depressed about work and also least likely to feel they were recognised for doing something well.
Retail employees aged 19 to 34 showed the highest levels of presenteeism, where employees work when physically or mentally unwell, with half working while unwell.
And female workers experienced some of the biggest mental health declines over the period, with an overall wellbeing score drop from 72 per cent in July to 52 per cent in September for women aged 55 to 64. Those aged 25 to 34 also experienced lower wellbeing in July and September.
Staff were asked, by the Retail Trust’s and employee engagement platform WorkL’s online happiness assessment, about their mental and physical health and how valued and fulfilled they feel, to create an overall wellbeing score for the Retail People Index.
Questions around pay, recognition, relationships with managers, work-related anxiety and workplace safety were among those used to separately help calculate the likelihood of them leaving their jobs or working while unwell between July and September 2024.
Chris Brook-Carter, chief executive of the Retail Trust, said, “There are often unrealistic expectations that the summer will be a less stressful time for people working in retail, but the reality is it often brings added pressures for working parents and those having to put in extra shifts to cover colleagues’ holidays.
“That's why it's important employers don’t underestimate the support their staff members need during the summer months, especially as they'll need a happy and healthy workforce to rely on as they gear up for the busy shopping period at the end of the year.
“Investing in staff wellbeing and retention during this crucial period will allow retailers to be more productive and successful for the rest of the year, thanks to the fundamental link between the hope, health and happiness of a business’s workforce and its economic resilience.
“Thank you to AlixPartners and to our data partner WorkL for their support in creating this valuable index. Our hope is that businesses from across the retail sector and beyond can now build this insight into their wellbeing strategies as they look to the tailored support their people will need in 2025.”
Laura Bond, director at AlixPartners said, “Retail employees clearly feel increasingly unsettled. These year-on-year insights underscore the uncertainty felt across the industry – and the autumn Budget likely will have heightened tensions further as people brace for potential job cuts and role shifts in 2025.
“As retail leaders respond to the Budget, they have an opportunity and responsibility to step up and engage meaningfully with their teams. Supporting people through this period isn't just the right thing to do – it’s a key driver of business performance.
“High-performing retailers consistently demonstrate effective employee engagement and a commitment to advancing diversity and inclusion. These are critical strategies for navigating challenges, while fostering resilience and growth within the organisation.”