Grocery sales to exceed £13 billion in December: Kantar

Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 2.5 per cent over the four weeks to 1 December as shoppers get ready for Christmas, according to the latest data from Kantar. Supermarket sales are expected to continue growing, exceeding £13 billion over the four weeks of December for the first time ever, the market researcher added.

“Monday 23rd December is likely to be the single busiest day for the supermarkets this year, although there are clear signs that shoppers are already stocking up their cupboards. Sales of assorted sweet biscuits and biscuits for cheese both doubled in November compared with the month before, while 8 per cent of us bought a Christmas pudding,” Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said.

“Many of us take the chance to treat ourselves at this time of year and retailers are rolling out seasonal product lines to help us celebrate in style. The proportion of spending on premium own label products reached 5 per cent over the latest four weeks and we expect it to climb even higher in December to nearly 7 per cent.”

Outside of the food and drink aisles, retailers’ general merchandise lines are also predicted to get a boost. Spending on non-grocery items in the supermarkets leapt by 21 per cent in December 2023 versus the monthly average for that year.

The cost of an average Christmas dinner for four has risen to £32.57, up by 6.5 per cent, largely driven by the price of turkey and Christmas vegetable staples. Wider grocery price inflation remains relatively stable at 2.6 per cent, with grocers prioritising low pricing over multibuys.

“Sales on promotion reached 30 per cent in November, the highest since Christmas last year. It’s retailer price cuts, often accessed through loyalty cards, that are really driving this,” McKevitt explained.

“While multibuy promotions have stayed flat, spending on price cut offers has grown by 14 per cent, worth £355 million more than last year. Shoppers are grabbing the chance to spend that little bit more than usual on Christmas specials, and champagne, wine and spirits saw the biggest levels of buying on deal.”

Britain’s largest grocer Tesco achieved its highest market share since December 2017 at 28.1 per cent, up from 27.4 per cent in 2023. Its sales grew by 5.2 per cent in the 12 weeks ending 1 December. Sainsbury’s share increased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.9 per cent, and spending through its tills was 4.7 per cent higher than last year. The UK’s two biggest grocers now have a combined market share of 44 per cent.

Online retailer Ocado boosted sales by 8.7 per cent over the period, achieving a 1.8 per cent share of the market. It outpaced the total online market which grew by 3.6 per cent, with shoppers spending £4.2 billion on the channel overall across the 12 weeks.

Lidl was the fastest growing bricks-and-mortar grocer, with sales up by 6.6 per cent. Its share climbed 0.3 percentage points to 7.7 per cent. The retailer’s footfall stepped up by nearly 10 per cent in comparison with a year ago.

Spending at Morrisons rose by 2.0 per cent, and it now takes 8.6 per cent of the market. Its average transaction value nudged up by 4.8 per cent over the 12 weeks, helped by strong online sales. This was significantly ahead of the average growth in basket spend across the grocers as a whole, which edged 0.7 per cent higher to £24.51 this period.

Waitrose grew slightly ahead of the market, with spending increasing by 2.6 per cent. It maintains a 4.4 per cent share. Spending at Aldi grew by 2.1 per cent, and the retailer retained 10.3 per cent of the market. Iceland also held its share of 2.2 per cent.

Asda has a 12.3 per cent market share, and Co-op’s portion of the market is now 5.5 per cent, but both retailers saw sales declining in the 12-week period, by 5.6 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively. Symbols and independents also experienced an year on year sales drop of 3.7 per cent.