Even if inflation continues to ease, shoppers are purchasing less and altering their buying habits while consumer demand across all channels remains unpredictable, says a new report.
According to new data released today by NielsenIQ (NIQ), total Till sales at UK major supermarkets grew (+3.3 per cent) in the last four weeks ending 21 February 2026.
Despite this growth, NIQ data shows the unit growth declined from January (-0.8 per cent from -0.6 per cent), indicative of continued pressure on shopper wallets. Inflation has continued to ease (+3.5 per cent from 3. per cent); however, shoppers are purchasing less and altering their buying habits as consumer demand across all channels remains unpredictable.
In addition, the impact of a decline in Consumer Confidence (GfK Index of -19 in February from -16 in January) was felt by food retailers who relied on shoppers spending more around the key calendar events during this period, including half term, Valentine’s Day, Pancake Day and the run up to Chinese New Year.
As well as shoppers spending £42m on rice, grains and noodles, shoppers also purchased more accompaniments to make up a celebratory Chinese New Year meal occasion spending £6.8m on oriental cooking sauces (+10.9 per cent) and £3.4m on fresh savoury snacks (+32 per cent).
As part of the seasonal dine-in deal offers, shoppers spent £58.5m on own label fresh ready meals (+3.4 per cent) of which 45 per cent were premium own label; an attractive alternative to eating out.
Also, during the week of Valentine’s Day, shoppers harnessed the convenience and immediacy of treating loved ones by using rapid delivery, with this channel having a 22 per cent share of online chocolate confectionery sales for the Valentine's Day weekend.
For the first time in over a year, NIQ data shows that there was a dip in the frequency of shopping, perhaps not helped by the wet weather, but a growth in the number of items in the basket helped by eCommerce.
In fact, 35 per cent of all growth in FMCG sales since the start of the year has come from eCommerce. As such, eCommerce (+9.2 per cent) remains the fastest-growing channel in terms of value sales growth and continues to increase its market share, increasing to 14.2 per cent.
The reluctance to spend is illustrated with only three super-categories in unit growth; dairy (+2.2 per cent), produce (+1.3 per cent) and meat/fish/poultry (+0.4 per cent). This is supported by data that shows 33 per cent of shoppers are changing the way they shop to save money, rising to 58 per cent for those who feel severely impacted by the cost of living.
Furthermore, the gap between own label unit growth (+1 per cent) and branded unit growth (-2.2 per cent) continues to widen, with 15 per cent of household shoppers saying they are saving money by switching to own label products, 16 per cent choosing cheaper brands and 18 per cent shopping more at Discounter stores.
Ocado (+14.4 per cent) continues to gain market share, retaining its position as the fastest-growing retailer, followed by Lidl (+9.9 per cent). Helped by their respective offers for Valentine’s Day, both M&S (+6.5 per cent) and Waitrose (+6.1 per cent) also gained market share and the frequency of store visits was higher than last year.
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NielsenIQ, said: “Many retailers focused on attracting shoppers with a choice of dine-in deals to capture a bigger share of spend at out-of-home channels, with premium offers such as three courses for two people for £25 setting a new and attractive price point compared to eating out.
He adds: “In fact, there was a small increase in basket size in the last four weeks and whilst it is too soon to say if this is a turning point in shopper behaviour, these big events encouraged shoppers to spend more and it’s possible that some are bringing some spend forward to help manage budgets ahead of Easter.”