The global convenience channel is on course to surpass $1 trillion (£740 billion) in value by 2030, but is set to lose ground within the wider grocery market as competition intensifies, according to new research from Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD).
IGD’s latest ‘Global convenience trends 2026’ report forecasts the sector will grow from around $900 billion in 2025 to more than $1tn by the end of the decade, with the world’s top 20 operators accounting for over $80bn in sales. However, this growth will lag behind the wider grocery market, with convenience expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 3.5 per cent compared with 4.0 per cent for total grocery.
As a result, convenience’s share of grocery is projected to slip from 10.7 per cent in 2025 to 10.4 per cent by 2030, highlighting what IGD describes as a “structural challenge” for the channel.
“The headline growth masks a structural challenge: convenience risks becoming a bigger channel with a smaller role in grocery spending unless retailers and suppliers adapt. The channel’s historic advantages are being eroded, and without change, it will continue to lose share,” Sneha Haria, insight manager at IGD, said.
Regionally, performance is expected to vary significantly. North America, currently the largest convenience market, is forecast to see the slowest growth, with market share declining from 16.9 per cent to 15.1 per cent as discounters and rapid delivery services ramp up competition.
In contrast, Europe is tipped to post the strongest gains in share, rising from 11.3 per cent to 11.9 per cent, driven by estate expansion and franchising. Asia will deliver the largest increase in absolute sales, although penetration will remain below 8 per cent as traditional retail formats continue to compete strongly.
IGD highlights several factors behind the projected share decline, including the continued expansion of discounters targeting value-conscious shoppers, supermarkets sharpening their small-format offers, and the growth of rapid delivery platforms reducing the need for immediate store visits. Rising operating costs, regulatory pressures, and the perception of convenience as a higher-priced channel are also weighing on performance.
The report argues that proximity alone is no longer enough to sustain growth, with successful operators instead redefining the role of the store. This includes sharpening food-for-now and food-for-later missions, improving value through private label and pricing strategies, investing in automation, and adding services and experiences that are harder for competitors to replicate.
“Convenience can no longer rely on proximity to justify its place in grocery. The operators gaining share are deliberately reshaping their offer around clear food missions, visible value, and everyday usefulness,” Haria added.