Discount will remain the fastest growing physical grocery channel globally through to 2030, with its CAGR almost one per cent higher than the wider grocery market’s 4.0 per cent, according to new research from IGD (Institute of Grocery Distribution).
Analysis from IGD’s report, "Global discount trends 2026", explains that the discount channel’s 4.8 per cent growth will be driven by shoppers’ demand for value, rapid store expansion, and increasing momentum from product and operational innovations.
Dan Butler, Insight Partner at IGD, commented: “Once seen as low‑cost outliers, discounters are now at the cutting edge of retail: innovating at pace and operating tech‑enabled, health‑forward, sustainability‑driven stores. With the stigma of discount shopping fading, the channel enters the next phase of economic recovery with a stronger brand image and greater resilience to shifts in shopper spending power.”
Variety to outgrow food
By 2030, the channel will represent 9.7 per cent of global grocery sales, adding US$209 billion in new revenue, according to IGD. Europe will remain the heartland of discount retail with 23.6 per cent grocery retail market share, but growth hotspots include the US, Russia, and Poland, where discounters will gain both share and scale at pace.
IGD expects the global grocery retail landscape will continue to shift with the expansion of major players, such as Lidl and Aldi – the largest global discounters – who are projected to generate a combined US$334bn in sales by 2030. The growth of both discount giants will be driven by major private label investment, the expansion of Aldi Süd in the US, and Lidl’s data‑driven pricing and loyalty ecosystem in Europe.
Variety discounters, such as Action in Europe and Dollar Tree in the US and Canada, will grow even faster than food‑focused discount formats, with a 6.3 per cent CAGR to 2030. This will be driven by non‑food value, impulse purchasing, and rising private‑label penetration, IGD claims.
Discount trends shaping modern grocery
IGD’s report points to discounters increasingly shaping the modern grocery retail agenda, with four interconnected trends driving the channel’s growth.
- Value without compromise: discounters are enhancing value beyond cost with more emphasis on quality, private label development, and experiences. Penny in Austria, for example, introduced new layouts with wider aisles to improve navigation.
- Driving footfall and frequency: the channel aims to attract more shoppers and retain them for longer with promotions, loyalty programmes, non-food offers, and enhanced experiences. In the US, Grocery Outlet used livestreams ahead of the Super Bowl to promote products which shoppers could browse and purchase via Instacart while watching.
- Making health affordable: operators are meeting wellbeing needs by offering clearer guidance, broader assortments, and easier navigation to make healthier choices more accessible. This is seen in Lidl Spain’s commitment to apply NutriScore to all private label products by this year.
- Championing sustainability: discounters are making sustainability more visible with clearer commitments, improved product transparency, and integrated circularity and waste reduction principles. In Germany, Netto Marken Discount’s Digimarc packaging demonstrates how discounters are integrating environmentalism into shopper journeys.
While advances in technology already underpin these trends, the report highlights several emerging technologies - such as smart carts and AI agents – which IGD believes will help discounters progress even further.
New and evolving technologies can benefit all retailers, but IGD expects discounters will innovate faster than competitors due to lean assortments, private label control, and tight operating models.
Suppliers must keep pace with discounters
Butler says the research signals both challenge and opportunity for suppliers:
“Discounters want partners who can match their pace. Suppliers must work more closely with discounters than ever before and actively support their growth by collaborating on efficient supply chains, insight‑led innovation, and value‑focused product development.”
The full report, "Global discount trends 2026", is available on the IGD website for Retail Analysis subscribers.