Consumer confidence remains at historic lows: GfK

Consumer confidence improved marginally in December but remained below -40 for the eighth month in a row, the first time this has happened since GfK began its records nearly 50 years ago.

The Index increased a meagre two points this month to -42, with three of the measures up, one down, and the other unchanged in comparison to the previous reading.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK, warned of a tough road ahead.

“Real wages are falling as inflation continues to bite hard, further straining the discretionary budget of many households as we enter the last few shopping days before Christmas,” he said

“The outlook for our personal financial situation over the next 12 months – perhaps the key metric as we enter a new year – is stuck at -29. And concerns about our economic future remain acute. As we enter the festive season, the Overall Index Score is still depressed and, with scant seasonal joy at present and no immediate prospect of fiscal good news, it is unlikely we will see a rebound in confidence anytime soon.”

December’s reading was the highest since July and the third consecutive monthly improvement in the index.

Over the past year, Britons have been hit by soaring prices that are stretching household budgets across the country. Energy prices jumped after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February and many consumers have been left with little money after paying for energy and food bills.

Since the survey began in 1974, the index had never fallen below minus 40 until May 2022, with the onset of double digit inflation. It has remained below that level, marking the most prolonged period of low confidence in almost half a century.

Inflation eased marginally to 10.7 per cent in November from a 41-year high of 11.1 per cent in October. Food inflation rose to 14.6 per cent, the highest since 1980.

Both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility have forecast a prolonged recession as high inflation continues to hit households’ finances in 2023.

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG, said that “whilst Christmas will bring some feel-good respite, the fundamentals that are driving this low consumer confidence will continue into the new year”.

The GfK survey, based on data collected over the first 10 days of December, showed that Britons’ confidence in their personal finances next year remained at the lowest level on record.

As a result, nearly two in three people have reduced non-essential spending and are using less energy in their homes, according to an ONS survey published on Thursday (15). Nearly half of the respondents said they were buying less food.

Staton said that with “no immediate prospect of fiscal good news, it is unlikely we will see a rebound in confidence any time soon”.