The Competition and Markets Authority has revised its provisional findings on Associated British Foods’ (ABF) planned acquisition of Hovis, saying the merger may no longer be expected to reduce competition in Northern Ireland.
In a supplementary interim report published today, the CMA said it had changed its provisional view following further submissions from ABF, additional evidence gathering and discussions with third parties.
The deal, announced in August 2025, would see ABF – owner of Allied Bakeries and the Kingsmill brand – acquire Hovis from private equity firm Endless LLP as part of efforts to create a more sustainable UK bread business.
The regulator had previously raised concerns that the merger could substantially lessen competition in Northern Ireland’s bread and bakery market, where the combined business would bring together two of the region’s largest suppliers. However, the CMA has now provisionally concluded that ABF subsidiary Allied Bakeries’ Northern Ireland business would likely have exited the market even without the deal proceeding.
The inquiry group said its revised view was based on new financial information, internal company documents and further analysis carried out since publication of its original interim report in March.
In the supplementary report, the CMA stated: “Our revised provisional conclusion in relation to NI is that the most likely counterfactual is one in which AB (Allied Bakeries) would have exited, and there would not have been an alternative, less anti-competitive purchaser for AB NI that would have operated it as a competitor to Hovis.”
As a result, the regulator said the “exiting firm scenario” now provisionally applies to both Allied Bakeries’ Great Britain and Northern Ireland operations.
The CMA added that its provisional conclusion is now that the merger “may not be expected to result in an substantial lessening of competition in either GB or NI, as regardless of whether the merger goes ahead or not, the constraint from AB as a separate competitor to Hovis would be lost”.
The CMA has invited responses to the supplementary interim report by 28 May before reaching its final decision.