Summary
- Cocoa-leading region coming off two below-average harvests
- Industry researchers downgrading their earlier 2025/26 forecasts
- Flower, young pod mortality rates high, despite improved weather
West African cocoa production, which has faced two successive below-average harvests, is likely to see another 10 per cent decline in the upcoming 2025/26 season despite marginally improved weather conditions, industry sources told Reuters.
Ivory Coast and Ghana - the world's two leading producers - along with Nigeria and Cameroon, account for over two-thirds of global cocoa output. But they are struggling with shifting weather patterns, ageing tree stocks, disease and destructive small-scale gold mining.
Pod counters employed by cocoa exporters and trading houses are currently visiting plantations to carry out crop assessments for the 2025/26 season, which opens in October.
The forecast of a 10 per cent fall in output across the four countries - a consensus view of five pod counters and six exporters - reverses an earlier projection of a 5 per cent increase made in May and June.
"Despite the rains, the mortality rate of flowers and cherelles (small pods), which determines the size of the next main crop, was high in June, exceeding our forecasts," said a pod counter in Ivory Coast, referencing recent field surveys.
While a full assessment of the 2025/26 harvest with more precise production forecasts will only be ready by late August or early September, the sources said the initial feedback from field studies confirmed a clear downward trend.
The last two seasons' below average output - particularly in Ghana and Ivory Coast - contributed to record global cocoa prices last year, although prices have since eased.
From producing over 2 million metric tons of cocoa five years ago, Ivory Coast's output is on track to reach 1.6 million tons this season.
Ghana's production, meanwhile, plummeted from over 1 million tons to less than half that last season. And while the country's cocoa sector regulator last month forecast output rebounding to 600,000 tons by this season's end, the International Cocoa Organization estimates its production at closer to 500,000 tons.
The pod counters told Reuters that flower and cherelle mortality rates in Ivory Coast are 15 per cent to 20 per cent above their May forecasts and are expected to remain elevated through July.
"It's not huge, but it indicates a downward trend for the next harvest," said one pod counter in Ivory Coast.
Regarding Ghana's production, another pod counter expressed doubts over its ability to rebound to levels above 500,000 tons per season in the near term.
"The country is facing too many problems in the sector for its production to grow quickly," he said.
(Reuters)