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Shop price inflation ticks up as cost pressures linger

UK Shop Price Inflation

Shop price inflation ticks up as cost pressures linger

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Pooja Shrivastava
By Pooja ShrivastavaMar 31, 2026
Pooja Shrivastava
A passionate journalist with about a decade of experience, Pooja has developed a strong hold on the UK grocery retail sector. From exploring legislative changes, supply chain shifts, consumer buying habits, trends to retail crime, her work is driven by a deep belief in investigating, finding the truth and telling authentic unbiased stories. Be it convenience pathbreakers, wholesale trendsetters or Post Office Horizon scandal victims, Pooja has an equal flair for deciphering industries as well as human complexities. At Asian Trader, she aims to bridge the gap between policy, trade, and the shop floor, always keeping a finger on the pulse of what matters most to retailers.
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Shop price inflation edged up slightly in March first week, driven by a small rise in non-food prices, while food inflation eased despite continued pressure in fresh food, shows retail sector figures released today (March 31).
Retailers used promotions to boost spending. However, rising supply chain costs linked to global tensions could push prices higher in the coming months, keeping shoppers cautious.

According to data released by British Retail Consortium covering period from March 1 to 7th 2026, shop price inflation increased to 1.2 per cent year on year in March, against growth of 1.1 per cent in February. This is below the 3-month average of 1.3 per cent.

Food inflation decreased to 3.4 per cent year on year in March, against growth of 3.5 per cent in February. This is below the 3-month average of 3.5 per cent.

Fresh food inflation increased to 4.4 per centyear on year in March, against growth of 4.3 per cent in February. This is in line with the 3-month average of 4.4 per cent.

Ambient food inflation decreased to 2.0 per cent year on year in March, against growth of 2.3 per cent in February. This is below the 3-month average of 2.4 per cent.

Commenting on the figures, Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, said, “Shop price inflation edged up in March, despite food inflation easing as dairy prices fell with lower wholesale milk costs. Retailers offered promotions on alcohol, TVs and sound systems in the run up to final Six Nations weekend, as well as on clothing & footwear to entice consumers to spend.

“Higher costs resulting from the conflict in the Middle East are starting to feed into supply chains. While retailers will work with their suppliers to mitigate the impact on prices as far as possible, inflation will rise, although there are no indications it will reach the peaks of the last spike in April 2023.

Government needs to look at all the costs that could exacerbate these price rises, from new healthy food rules to trade changes with Europe, the Employment Rights Act and non-commodity charges which make up such a large proportion of energy bills. Ignoring businesses’ concerns risks even higher prices for shoppers.”

Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NIQ, said, “Whilst it’s good news that food inflation slowed in recent weeks, shoppers are increasingly conscious of the amount of money they are spending at the checkout, and non-food retailers will be hoping for a good Easter to drive sales.

"However, if price rises come through the supply chain over the next few months, this has the potential to take the edge off retail growth.”

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