Key Summary
- Total Till sales growth grew to +4.1% in the last four weeks,
- In-store visits rose (+4.8%) as shoppers took advantage of retailers' focus on promotions and loyalty card price cuts.
- Lidl (+11.4%) and Ocado (+14.3%) remain the fastest growing retailers with sales at Marks & Spencer also growing (+8.5%).
Following the hottest summer on record, which encouraged spending on food and drink, shoppers are again in routine as schools reopened though the industry now faces the challenge of navigating higher inflation ahead of Christmas, says an industry expert citing grocery sales data released today (Sept 17).
According to latest data from NielsenIQ, total till sales at UK supermarkets grew (+4.1 per cent) in the last four weeks ending 6th September 2025.
This growth up from +3.7 per cent recorded in August signaled the end of Summer holidays as shoppers shifted focus to back to school items and preparations for Christmas celebrations.
The growth was also likely supported in part by rising inflation (+4.1 per cent), which increased the overall basket value. Across the Grocery Multiples unit sales fell -0.2 per cent.
Cautious of rising household bills, retailers were reluctant to pass on the full cost of business or supply chain pressures, as consumer demand remained transient and relatively weak.
As a result, sales of items purchased under promotions increased slightly to 23.5 per cent of sales, with shoppers leaning on loyalty card discounts to secure the best deals. Visits to stores continued to increase (+4.8 per cent), while online shopping occasions also grew (+1.9 per cent), reflecting the ongoing ‘little and more often’ shopping behaviour across both in-store and online grocery channels.
Looking at category trends, meat, fish, and poultry saw a strong increase, with total sales up (+9.2 per cent) and units rising (+1.6 per cent).
Soft drinks also performed well, with sales up (+10.6 per cent) and units purchased up (+4.4 per cent), supported by the sunny weather at the end of August. In addition, health, beauty and toiletries saw sales rise (+6.2 per cent) with the number of items also up (+1.5 per cent).
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NielsenIQ, said, “Following the hottest summer on record, which encouraged spending and sustained food and drink sales, the industry now faces the challenge of navigating higher inflation.
"One in three households currently identify the cost of living as their top concern, up from 22% in March, while nearly two-thirds of shoppers report being moderately or severely affected by rising costs, compared with 56% a few months ago.
"As households switch their heating back on and prepare for additional spending ahead of Christmas, most consumers anticipate that financial pressures are set to increase further.”
With 75 per cent of households saying it’s important or very important to actively save money on their grocery bills, the build towards Christmas could be slower than previous years.
Watkins adds, “Looking ahead, with many shoppers unable, unwilling, or reluctant to spend freely, if food inflation reaches 5 per cent or more by the end of the year, this could limit some of the volume increases typically seen during the Golden Quarter.
"So for retailers, three key challenges lie ahead: securing sales growth in the face of rising inflation to drive volume, encouraging ‘trading up’ across different shopping missions, and ensuring that media messages and forthcoming advertising campaigns resonate with increasingly price-sensitive consumers.”