Britain's economic output returned to growth in November but expanded by less than expected in the first month after chancellor Rachel Reeves announced big tax increases for businesses.
Gross domestic product rose by 0.1 per cent from October, according to official data, marking the first month-on-month increase since August after falls in September and October. However, economists polled by Reuters had mostly forecast a 0.2 per cent rise.
Reeves, whose Oct. 30 budget included big increases in social security contributions paid by employers, said after the data release that she was "determined to go further and faster to kick-start economic growth."
She will meet regulators on Thursday to discuss what they can do to help the Labour government meet its promise to voters to speed up the economy.
Ben Jones, lead economist at the Confederation of British Industry, said a mood of caution had settled over UK businesses since the budget.
"Many firms are entering 2025 with a focus on reducing operational expenditure, which is likely to weigh on pay, hiring and investment in the months ahead," Jones said.
Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Thursday's data showed the gloomy mood continued for the UK economy due to the budget tax hikes and global uncertainty after Donald Trump's U.S. presidential election victory.
The Bank of England looked certain to cut rates in February, Wood said, "but we think the outlook remains brighter than the late 2024 data suggest, and talk of recessionary risk is wide of the mark."
Sterling fell, dropping by about a fifth of a cent against the US dollar before recovering some of that loss.
The Office for National Statistics said Britain's services sector grew a little in November with wholesaling, pubs and restaurants and IT companies all doing well but manufacturers and oil and gas firms had a weaker month.
Britain's economy, which was slow to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, showed zero growth in the third quarter when uncertainty about the upcoming budget hit businesses. The BoE expects economic growth to have flat-lined in the last three months of 2024.
However, an increase in government spending is expected to cause growth to speed up in 2025.
Concerns about weak growth contributed to a recent surge in British government borrowing costs before they dropped sharply on Wednesday after a surprise fall in inflation at home and US price growth data.
Lindsay James, an investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said the full impact of the budget was yet to come, with the tax rises due to start in April.
"Businesses will soon feel the effects of increased national insurance contributions," James said. "In addition, Trump’s inauguration is nearing, and the true effects of his policies will start to be felt later in the year."
The Labour government says it is targeting the fastest per capita growth in gross domestic product among the Group of Seven advanced economies.
Compared with a year earlier, economic output was 1.0 per cent higher in November, the ONS said, weaker than the 1.3 per cent expansion forecast by economists.
Pictured at the launch of the partnership is the culinary students with (centre back) Sean Owens, Ulster University, (front l to r) Michael Gillies, Ulster University, Laimis Minelga, Favourit and Favourit ambassador, Ian Hunter, Belfast Cookery School.
is celebrating a landmark 110 years in business in 2025. In the first of a series of plans to be revealed throughout the year, Favourit has announced that it is collaborating with Ulster University to create a special award for aspiring leaders in culinary arts.
As part of this partnership, Favourit’s ranges will be incorporated into a BSc Culinary Arts Management module, offering students the opportunity to showcase their creativity and culinary expertise using the Belfast-based food company’s range of herbs, spices and seasonings.
“Favourit is a Northern Ireland success story which has, over the last 110 years, consistently offered quality products which are available in stores across the island of Ireland and Great Britain," said Laimis Minelga, Marketing Executive at Favourit.
“In this very special anniversary year we wanted to partner with an established education institution that would allow us to work with and encourage young people to explore flavours more. The team from the Department of Hospitality Tourism and Events Management at Ulster University were on board from the get-go and it has been such a rewarding experience already.”
Throughout the Ulster University culinary arts module titled Contemporary Gastronomy, students will be challenged to create a complete menu – including a starter, main course, and dessert – with at least one Favourit product featured in each dish.
The highest-scoring student will receive a £1,000 bursary from Favourit, providing a valuable opportunity to further their culinary education or pursue their passion for food.
“This collaboration allows students to develop their culinary skills and explore the art of flavour pairing using our ranges which have over forty herbs, spices and seasonings," Minelga continued. "We’re proud to support young people that are passionate about food and to offer them a chance to win a bursary to further their culinary journey.”
Michael Gillies, Course Director and Lecturer Culinary Arts Management, Department of Hospitality Tourism and Events Management, Ulster University, said: “Our partnership with Favourit is an exciting and unique opportunity for students to work with an established, home-grown food brand that offers them an incredible range of products to work with. Using quality herbs and spices in their creations will give our aspiring culinary leaders numerous ways to show off their skills and to push the boundaries of flavour and innovation. Key when trying to get the best out of food.”
The Favourit 110th year celebration event will be held at Ulster University’s hospitality learning lab, The Academy Restaurant, where the next generation of hospitality professionals rehearse their management and leadership skills.
Laimis added: “There is no better place to hold our celebration dinner than at The Academy restaurant where Ulster University culinary arts management students created their dishes. The invited guests, which will include media, influencers, and trade professionals, will taste some of the students Favourit-inspired creations on the night, helping to showcase their considerable talents.”
Throughout 2025, Favourit is planning to make its 110th year a milestone for trade customers and consumers across the UK and Ireland. Keep up to date with the latest news by visiting their website, www.favouritfood.com, social media channels, www.instagram.com/favouritfoods/, https://www.facebook.com/favouritfoods, or call + 44 289 0267 080 for more information.
Bira (British Independent Retailers Association), which represents over 6,000 independent retail businesses across the UK, has warned that they face troubled times ahead despite today's Bank of England interest rate cut to 4.5 per cent, as the Bank halves its growth forecast for 2025 to just 0.75 per cent.
"The reduction in interest rates was expected and is welcome news for the retail sector," said Bira CEO Andrew Goodacre. "We have consistently maintained that rates have unnecessarily remained high for longer than required, and we anticipate this reduction will help boost consumer confidence."
However, Bira expressed serious concerns regarding the Bank's revised economic growth projections. The forecast has been halved from the previous estimate of 1.5 per cent to just 0.75 per cent for 2025, despite recent government initiatives.
Mr Goodacre said: "The Bank's economic growth outlook is deeply worrying. Independent retailers are still grappling with the triple impact of rising costs from last year's budget. While the Bank of England is taking steps to stimulate growth through rate cuts, more immediate action is needed from the government to support high street businesses."
Andrew Goodacre
The Bank's decision comes amid rising inflation expectations, with projections showing inflation could reach 3.7 per cent in the third quarter of this year. Additionally, unemployment is forecast to increase to 4.8 per cent over the next year, highlighting the challenging economic environment facing retailers.
Bira emphasises that while long-term infrastructure projects are important, immediate support for high street businesses is crucial.
"Long-term projects like the third runway at Heathrow will do little to address the immediate challenges facing high street retailers this year. We need to see concrete government plans that will deliver immediate support to our sector," added Goodacre.
Danish brewer Carlsberg said Thursday that it returned to profit in 2024 thanks in part to completing the sale of its Russian subsidiary.
Like many Western companies Carlsberg sought to pull out of Russia after it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, but it was only in December 2024 that it was able to complete a sale of the Baltika brewery.
The amount of the transaction was not disclosed in December, but the company's annual statement indicated that Carlsberg received 2.3 billion kroner (£258 million) for Russia's largest brewer.
Carlsberg, the world's fourth-largest beer group, posted a net profit of 9.1 billion kroner for 2024, after having posted a loss of 40.8 billion kroner in 2023, due in large part to Moscow having seized Baltika.
Sales rose by two percent to 75 billion kroner, just surpassing the analyst forecast of 74.98 billion kronor established by Bloomberg.
Sales volume remained stable at 101 million hectolitres.
Carlsberg is targeting an increase of one to five percent in operating profit.
“Given the challenging environment in some of our major markets, which impacted the volume development, we’re satisfied with our solid 2024 results,” Jacob Aarup-Andersen, chief executive, said.
“The commitment and passion of our people and the resilience of our business enabled us to deliver top-line growth, increase commercial investments and achieve organic operating profit growth at the high end of our guidance, which we upgraded in August.”
2024 has been a year of major events for Carlsberg, with the acquisition of Britvic, the buyout of its partner in India and Nepal and the expanded partnership with PepsiCo in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
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Bottles of Ricard, aniseed-flavoured beverage, are displayed on shelves in a supermarket in Chanverrie, France, October 16, 2024
Tariffs imposed by China and the United States could deal an estimated €200 million (£167m) blow to Pernod Ricard's business annually, finance chief Helene de Tissot said on Thursday.
China has already imposed temporary tariffs on European brandy imports, hurting Pernod's sales of its Martell cognac brand. The impact of tariffs, which could become permanent, forced Pernod to cut its outlook for 2025 and beyond on Thursday.
The world's second-largest spirits maker now anticipates a low single-digit decline in organic net sales.
US president Donald Trump has also threatened 25 per cent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as impose levies on the European Union, which would affect a range of Pernod products from Jameson Irish whiskey to Codigo 1530 tequila.
Altogether, assuming a 10 per cent US tariff on the EU, that could have an annual impact of €200m on Pernod, de Tissot told analysts on Thursday's results call, adding around €130-140m of that was related to Chinese cognac duties.
About 50 per cent of the total could be offset via mitigation measures, de Tissot continued, some of which have already been implemented in China.
Earlier this week Diageo, the world's top spirits maker, estimated an around $200m (£161m) blow from US tariffs for the last four months of its current financial year.
Pernod reported a 4 per cent organic sales decline in the first half of fiscal year 2025, with reported sales down 6 per cent to €6.17bn. While seeing sequential improvement in the second quarter and strong performances in some mature and emerging markets, the company cited a declining but improving US market and a continuing weak performance in China as key factors affecting results. Volume was up, but price/mix was down 6 per cent largely due to market mix, the company said.
Despite the sales decline, Pernod managed to expand its organic operating margin by 65 basis points in the first half, reaching 32.1 per cent.
Looking ahead, Pernod anticipates fiscal year 2026 will be a transition year with improving trends in organic net sales, conditional on the challenges posed by the global tariff environment. The company aims to defend its organic operating margin during this period and improve cash conversion. From fiscal year 2027 to 2029, Pernod projects stronger organic net sales growth, targeting an average range of 3 to 6 per cent, alongside organic operating margin expansion.
The company reiterated its commitment to maintaining consistent brand investment, targeting approximately 16 per cent of net sales for advertising and promotion, while remaining agile and responsive to market opportunities.
Pernod also plans to continue its efficiency initiatives, targeting approximately €1bn in savings from fiscal year 2026 to 2029.
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Shoplifter banned from Blackburn town centre, One stop stores
A prolific shoplifter has been banned from Blackburn town centre and One Stop Stores in Lancashire.
Benjamin Wareing, 29, of Lockside was handed a two-year Criminal Behaviour Order (CBO) over shoplifting offences.
As informed by Lancashire Constabulary, Wareing was issued the CBO at Preston Magistrates Court on Saturday (1) with a number of conditions.
He is not to enter or attempt to enter Blackburn town centre unless to attend a pre-booked appointment. He is also not allowed to enter any One Stop convenience store in Blackburn.
Operation Vulture is Lancashire Constabulary’s response to shoplifting across the county, backed by Lancashire's Police and Crime Commissioner Clive Grunshaw.
The operation sees dedicated officers undertaking hotspot patrolling, increasing their visibility in targeted areas and creating strong partnerships with retailers across the county to better share intelligence, get a deeper understanding of retail crime and identify more offenders.
Lancashire Police and Crime Commissioner Clive Grunshaw said, "As Lancashire's Police and Crime Commissioner, I will continue to work alongside the Chief Constable to establish a more proactive approach to shoplifting, with better protection for shop workers and improved relationships between retailers and the police.
"The public need to know that in the event of a crime such as shoplifting, the police will come, and the crime will be punished accordingly.”