Increases in grocery bills and of everyday household essentials kept consumer confidence almost stagnant in the third quarter of this year, posing a challenge for retailers in the golden quarter.
According to Deloitte Consumer Tracker index, consumer confidence improved by +0.4 percentage points in the third quarter of 2025, driven by increases across four of the six measures.
Céline Fenech, consumer insight lead at Deloitte UK, said, “While it is encouraging to see a slight improvement in consumer confidence this quarter, the overall picture is varied.
"Caution remains, with many sentiment markers scoring lower than the same time last year. However, with four of the six measures included in our index improving this quarter, there are signs that consumers are feeling more positive about their own circumstances.
“A sustained recovery in confidence may take time as consumers will be keeping a close eye on inflation levels, particularly the price of essentials, as well as the overall economic outlook.”
Consumer sentiment towards their levels of household disposable income dropped -0.5 percentage points in Q3 2025 and has fallen -5.7 percentage points year-on-year. At the same time, consumer spending fell across both essential (-0.4 percentage points) and discretionary (-0.6 percentage points) items.
Spending on essentials in Q3 was +1.1 percentage points higher than it was a year ago, driven by increases in utility bills (+6.5 percentage points), groceries (+5.6 percentage points) and everyday household items (+5.3 percentage points).
Discretionary spending is also lower (-1.3 percentage points) comparatively year-on-year, with spending on restaurants (-5 percentage points), holidays and hotels (-2.6 percentage points) and purchases of clothing and footwear (-1.8 percentage points) down.
The data shows an increase in the proportion of consumers saying they are spending more because of rising prices (+2 percentage points to 75%) and those saying they are only spending on essentials (+3 percentage points to 47%).
Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte UK, said: “As inflation persists, particularly across food items, it is understandable that some consumers are feeling less optimistic about their levels of disposable income. As a result, consumers continue to adopt tactical spending behaviours, trading down to cheaper alternatives or opting out of purchases all together. With the ‘Golden Quarter’ now in full swing, the question remains whether consumer spending will pick up to paint a more positive picture for Q4.”