Household spending on take-home groceries hit a record high this Christmas at £460 on average, according to the latest data from Kantar. Overall take-home sales at the grocers rose by 2.1 per cent over the four weeks to 29 December compared with last year.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, says, “It was a solid Christmas at the supermarkets with sales surpassing £13 billion during the four weeks of December for the first time ever, showing people were clearly in the mood to celebrate and spend.
"However, despite the festive cheer, grocery price inflation has ticked up to 3.7 per cent, its highest level since March 2024.
“In contrast to reports of disappointing footfall across the rest of the high street, it was a very different story in the world of grocery. The average household made nearly 17 separate shopping trips this December, delivering the busiest month for the retailers since the pre-lockdown rush in March 2020.
"As anticipated, Monday 23 December was the most popular shopping day of the year, with sales a whopping 30 per cent higher than any other day during 2024.”
People were also willing to splash out that little bit more than usual, as sales growth for branded goods accelerated to 4.2 per cent, while premium own-label lines jumped by 14.6 per cent. The latter now account for a record 7.0 per cent of all sales, as nine in 10 households bought at least one of these products in December.
Sparkling wine and champagne were the stars of the festive drinks trolley, achieving sales growth of 4.4 per cent at a total of £187 million across the month. There was enjoyment in moderation too, as 11 per cent of the population bought a no or low alcohol drink, up from under 10% last year.
The category data reveals some interesting splits between how younger and older shoppers prefer to indulge.
McKevitt adds, “We’ve all got our own festive favourites, but it seems that age differences come into play too. Under 45s are far more likely to pick up a sausage roll, and they also go for a slightly more mediterranean spin, being the most likely to reach for panettone as well as antipasti and party food as part of their Christmas shopping.
"Meanwhile over 45s account for the majority of Christmas cake and fortified wine sales. The seasonal biscuit, however, knows no bounds appealing across the generations.”
Britain's largest grocer Tesco saw growth across its convenience, superstore and online channels contributing to a 5.0 per cent increase in sales over the 12 weeks to 29 December.
Sainsbury’s achieved its highest share since December 2019 at 16.0 per cent thanks to sales growth which outpaced the market at 3.5 per cent. Morrisons sales rose by 0.4 per cent with its share standing at 8.6 per cent. Asda now holds 12.5 per cent of the market.
McKevitt adds, “More people chose to do some of their Christmas grocery shopping online this year with 5.6 million households opting for delivery or click and collect services on at least one occasion. Online spending for the month reached a record £1.6 billion. This saw Ocado boost its sales by 9.6 per cent over the 12 weeks, taking its overall share to 1.8 per cent.”
Discount retailers Lidl and Aldi achieved their highest ever Christmas shares at 7.3 per cent and 10.0 per cent respectively. Lidl secured the fastest footfall growth of any retailer as spending through its tills increased by 6.6 per cent. Aldi’s sales were up 2.9 per cent, as it attracted an additional 315,000 customers to its stores.
Waitrose market share remained at 4.6 per cent with spending increasing by 2.1 per cent. Iceland’s sales rose by 1.0 per cent giving the frozen food specialist a 2.3 per cent share. Convenience retailer Co-op’s portion of the market is now 5.3 per cent.
Share of symbols and independents saw a slight dip and is at 1.3 per cent.
Outside of the grocers, food and drink spending at M&S increased by 8.7 per cent, driven by strong performance in its core fresh and chilled range (9 per cent higher) and ambient lines (11 per cent greater) across the 12 weeks.
Trust in UK-produced food has reached its highest level since 2021 following three years of falling confidence in standards.
Most (75 per cent) adults now say they trust food produced in the UK. This is a rise from 71 per cent in 2023, although still below the level of trust felt by shoppers in 2021 (81 per cent).
The figure rises to 91 per cent when consumers are asked whether they trust food "exclusively produced" within the UK.
Significantly, more people now say they trust UK food more than NHS care, water from the tap, or any other core service or utility.
A clear majority (85 per cent) of respondents to the survey say they trust the country's farmers, compared to just 9 per cent of whom express distrust.
Animal welfare remains the most important aspect of food production for consumers, and 72 per cent of adults say farmers follow good animal welfare standards.
And a majority of respondents (72 per cent) say that assurance labels were a reason to trust food, while 77 per cent say that labels showing where food comes from helps build trust.
The findings, which draw on research from over 3,000 UK consumers, form part of Red Tractor’s annual Trust in Food Index. First produced in 2021, it is designed to provide the most comprehensive assessment of consumer attitudes to food in the UK.
Jim Moseley, CEO of Red Tractor, said the past four years had been 'brutal' for the food and farming industry. Farmers have particularly faced a series of challenges, such as severe weather events, poor harvests, and the prospect of rising taxes on the horizon.
"Not since the foot-and-mouth crisis over 20 years ago has the food industry had so much to contend with," he said.
But this year’s findings will likely give a boost following years of rising costs and higher prices for consumers.
Meanwhile, the importance of the Red Tractor logo when choosing food has risen to its highest level in the four years since the Trust in Food Index began.
Moseley concluded, "It should be a source of huge pride to everyone involved in food production in the UK that food is now more trusted than water or any other basic service we rely on every day
"Despite the extremely challenging environment, farmers’ efforts to work to some of the highest standards in the world has played a significant role in driving a resurgence of consumer trust in UK food."
Convenience retail continues to remain a robust sector despite rising crime and state intervention on unhealthy products, states leading property adviser Christie & Co today (16) in its annual report.
Christie & Co's report "Business Outlook 2025" reflects on key market activity, trends and challenges of 2024 and forecasts what 2025 might bring across the industries, including the convenience retail sector.
The report notes that in 2024 retail deal activity continued in the same strong vein as in H2 2023, and convenience retail remains a robust sector driven by need, providing solid investment opportunities. As such, Christie & Co's retail price index rose by 7.3 per cent.
Despite operational challenges from rising crime and state intervention on unhealthy products, there was a strong demand for opportunities.
According to Christie & Co 2024 data revealed in the report, there was a 20 per cent increase in the number of stores sold compared to 2023, with an average of ten viewings per sale.
Ever-increasing overheads will continue to present challenges for store owners and are causing the multiples to increase the turnover threshold for profitable stores.
Christie & Co notes that, as costs rise, continued divestment from corporate multiple retailers is expected and these divestments will inevitably present new opportunities for independent buyers in 2025.
The report also outlines Christie & Co's market predictions for the year ahead
Retailers will continue to face rising costs as a result of measures outlined in the Autumn Budget, and this will affect wages in particular.
This has the potential to cause inflation. However, as convenience stores are needs-driven, consumers will accept price rises or seek out value for money, states the report.
Retailers may be less inclined to hire more staff because of increasing wages and taxations, as announced in the Budget.
Due to increasing Government restrictions on unhealthy products, suppliers will have to adapt their offerings to fit requirements or sellers will have to evolve their product range, the report added.
It is unlikely that there will be a reduction in demand for sites, but purchasers will most likely factor cost increases into their offers while divestments from corporate multiple retailers are expected to continue as they continue to see costs go up and "tail end" stores may struggle, states the report.
Steve Rodell, Managing Director of Retail and Leisure at Christie & Co comments, “We are in the very fortunate position to be at the forefront of convenience retail business-to-business transactions, and we have worked very hard to become the market leaders.
"This is now a valuable position to be in, as other areas of retail, including much of the high street, struggle with internet shopping and multiple channels of competition.
"Convenience retail remains a needs-based sector, and as long as retailers listen to customers and satisfy local demand there is a good future for the convenience store.”
"Cultural entropy" costs retailers an estimated £10.8 billion annually, making up almost a tenth of the £122 billion lost annually across UK industries due to workplace fear, amounting to 5 per cent of the nation’s GDP, states a recent report.
According to research by Katharine Williams, founder of Neema, in terms of economic loss, the retail sector ranks fifth, sitting below healthcare, manufacturing, real estate and construction and financial services.
The rise of e-commerce, automation in supply chains, and data-driven decision-making has transformed operational models.
This shift has increased pressure on leadership to adapt quickly, often leading to fear-based behaviours amplified by job security concerns, evolving customer expectations, and the challenge of balancing technological innovation with workforce retention, states the report.
Defined by the Barrett Values Centre, cultural entropy is a measure of unproductive and fear-based leadership behaviours such as blame, bureaucracy, and mistrust, which divert critical resources and energy away from productive activities, hampering revenue growth and impacting employee engagement across various sectors.
In terms of cultural entropy, by comparison to other sectors retail performs quite well with an entropy score of 17 per cent, sitting below sectors such as utilities and healthcare which have greater levels of fear-based behaviours.
The study finds that although good leaders don’t intentionally foster fear-based cultures, many unwittingly do. Despite over 50 per cent of UK organisations offering leadership development programmes, between 15 per cent and 22 per cent of all leadership behaviour remains fear-based.
This is because, like all humans, 90-95 per cent of a leader’s thoughts and behaviours are driven by their subconscious processing—which is often fear-based and shaped by emotional triggers, habits, and learned responses.
As a result, even highly experienced, well-intentioned leaders operate with fully deliberate, intentional thought only 5-10 per cent of the time, making them susceptible to automatic responses that may not align with either their own or the company’s values.
Williams said, “I see this as positive news for CEOs within retail. For those who have been left dissatisfied by the results of costly, time-intensive cultural interventions and leadership development programmes, there is a bright light at the end of the tunnel.
"Cultural Entropy costs will drastically reduce as leaders increase awareness of the subconscious patterns and habits that fuel fear-based leadership behaviours.
"As a coach, I use neuroscience-backed techniques, honed intuition, and rigorous diagnostics to help clients access and integrate what’s hidden in their subconscious. Integrating the subconscious with the conscious makes the invisible, visible – and what you can see you can address. At Neema, we call this ‘Integrated Leadership’.”
Two-thirds of retail leaders respondents say they will raise prices in response to increased NI costs while food inflation could hit 4.2 per cent by the end of 2025, a leading retailers' body has said citing a recent survey.
British Retail Consortium (BRC) today (15) released the findings of a survey of CFOs (Chief Financial Officers) at 52 leading retailers, revealing significant concern about trading conditions over the next 12 months.
Sentiment languished at a concerning -57 with 70 per cent of respondents “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” about trading conditions over the coming 12 months, while just 13 per cent said they were “optimistic” or very “optimistic” (17 per cent were neither optimistic nor pessimistic).
The biggest concerns, all appearing in over 60 per cent of CFO’s “top 3 concerns for their business” were falling demand for goods and services, inflation for goods and services, and the increasing tax and regulatory burden.
When asked how they would be responding to the increases in employers’ National Insurance Contributions(NICs) (from April 2025), two-thirds stated they would raise prices (67 per cent), while around half said they would be reducing ‘number of hours/overtime’ (56 per cent), ‘head office headcount’ (52 per cent), and ‘stores headcount’ (46 per cent). Almost one third said the increased costs would lead to further automation (31 per cent).
The impact of the Budget on wider business investment was also clear, with 46 per cent of CFOs saying they would ‘reduce capital expenditure’ and 25 per cent saying they would ‘delay new store openings.’ 44 per cent of respondents expected reduced profits, which will further limit the capacity for investment.
This survey comes only a few weeks after 81 retail CEOs wrote to the Chancellor with their concerns about the economic consequences of the Budget. The letter noted that the retail industry’s costs could rise by over £7 billion in 2025 as a result of changes to employers’ NICs (£2.33 bn), National Living Wage increases (£2.73bn) and the reformed packaging levy (£2 billion).
The Budget is not the only challenge retailers are facing, with weak consumer confidence and low consumer demand also an issue. As part of the survey, CFOs offered their forecasts for the year ahead. These suggest that shop price inflation, currently at 0.5 per cent, will rise to an average of 2.2 per cent in the second half of 2025. This would be most pronounced for food, where inflation is expected to hit an average of 4.2 per cent in the second half of the year.
The forecast for sales was more muted. While sales growth is expected to improve on the 2024 level of just 0.7 per cent, at just 1.2 per cent this would still be below inflation. This means the industry could be facing a year of falling sales volumes at the same time as huge new costs resulting from the Budget.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive at the BRC, said, “With the Budget adding over £7bn to their bills in 2025, retailers are now facing into the difficult decisions about future investment, employment and pricing.
"As the largest private sector employer, employing many part-time and seasonal workers, the changes to the NI threshold have a disproportionate effect on both retailers and their supply chains, who together employ 5.7m people across the country.
“Retailers have worked hard to shield their customers from higher costs, but with slow market growth and margins already stretched thin, it is inevitable that consumers will bear some of the burden.
"The majority of retailers have little choice but to raise prices in response to these increased costs, and food inflation is expected to rise steadily over the year. Local communities may find themselves with sparser high streets and fewer retail jobs available. Government can still take steps to shore up retail investment and confidence.
"Business rates remain the biggest roadblock to new shops and jobs, with retailers paying over a fifth of the total rates bill. The Government must confirm the planned reforms will make a meaningful difference to retailers’ bills and that no shop will end up paying more.”
As UK and European retailers gear up for 2025, the grocery sector is poised for transformation, driven by renewed focus on fundamental retail practices, new revenue opportunities, and the growing demand for health and sustainability initiatives., highlights a new report.
A new report from IGD outlines six key trends that are set to shape the future of the grocery sector across the UK and Europe.
1. Optimising Retail Fundamentals for Success
While new technologies capture attention, UK and European retailers are reinforcing core retail fundamentals like stock availability, pricing, and promotions. Innovations like shelf-edge cameras and AI-driven stock management are improving these essential areas, ensuring a seamless shopping experience.
2. Exploring New Revenue Streams
As operating costs rise, UK retailers are diversifying their revenue sources by leveraging e-commerce technology, data monetisation, and B2B services. Tesco’s launch of Transcend, enabling other grocers to use its fulfilment tools, exemplifies the growing interest in non-traditional retail income streams.
3. Evolving Store Formats for Greater Flexibility
Retailers are adopting adaptable store designs that cater to evolving consumer needs and seasonal trends. The rise of modular store formats that feature event spaces, like FairPrice Finest in Singapore, is gaining traction in Europe, offering dynamic, customer-focused shopping experiences.
4. Seamless Connected Commerce
UK and European retailers are enhancing the integration of physical and digital retail, focusing on omnichannel experiences, loyalty programmes, and smart checkout solutions. AI-powered tools, like Target’s Store Companion, are simplifying store operations while enhancing customer engagement.
5. Health and Wellness Products Lead the Charge
Driven by growing health-conscious consumer demand, retailers in the UK and Europe are introducing more functional foods and health-focused products. The rise of initiatives like Cycle.me demonstrates a shift towards combining wellness with convenience, offering consumers greater choice in healthy, sustainable products.
6. Accelerating Sustainability Commitments
Retailers are intensifying their sustainability efforts, with a focus on reducing food waste, plastic packaging, and energy usage. Germany’s EDEKA Dorfmann sustainability store sets a new benchmark for eco-conscious retail, inspiring UK and European retailers to meet ambitious sustainability goals through innovative practices.
Stewart Samuel, Director of Retail Futures at IGD, commented, “As we move towards 2025, retailers must build on the foundation of global trends while ensuring they stay agile to rapidly evolving consumer demands.
"Focusing on the basics – stock availability, pricing, and promotions – remains critical to success. But at the same time, leveraging new revenue streams, embracing technological innovation, and championing health and sustainability are no longer optional; they are essential to staying competitive.
“Retailers who can successfully integrate these areas will not only future-proof their businesses but also build stronger relationships with increasingly conscious and demanding consumers.”