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Generational smoking ban threatens Labour’s grip on Scotland

UK tobacco legislation Scotland
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One in five Scots say that they are less likely to vote Labour if the generational smoking ban goes ahead, compared with only one in eleven who are attracted by the policy.

According to a new opinion poll, Labour’s dominance of Scottish politics is imperilled by the Government’s bid to phase out smoking.


Labour holds 36 of the 57 Westminster seats in Scotland, but in the latest opinion polls it trails the SNP and is being challenged for second place by Reform UK.

The survey conducted by Whitestone Insight for The Freedom Association finds that 6 per cent of Scots are somewhat less likely to vote Labour if the ban goes ahead and that 14 per cent are much less likely to do so. This compares with 6 per cent somewhat more likely to back the party and 3 per cent much more likely.

The equivalent figures for the UK as a whole in a previous poll are 14 per cent less likely to vote Labour and 10 per cent more likely - suggesting that the ban goes down particularly badly with Scottish voters.

The generational smoking ban is part of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill currently before the House of Lords. It means that anyone born after 2008 will not be able to buy tobacco legally. Initially only teenagers will by affected but in time people in their twenties, thirties and so forth will be banned from smoking.

It will eventually mean that someone aged 42, say, will be allowed to buy cigarettes but someone a year younger at the age of 41 will be banned from doing so. New Zealand is the only country in the world to try to phase out smoking this way and it ditched the policy after just one year.

The Freedom Association poll found that the Scottish public backs the ban in theory but opposes it in practice.

Some 57 per cent of Scots support the ban compared with 25 per cent opposed. But only 34 per cent say it is ‘workable’ and 50 per cent - half those polled - say it is ‘unworkable’.

This means scepticism about the practicality of the measure is even greater north of the border than in the rest of the country where the figures are 38 per cent workable and 48 per cent unworkable.

Hostility to the ban is greatest among the working classes in Scotland. Only one in four (26 per cent) of those in social classes C2, D and E think the ban is workable, while 54 per cent say it is not. Among ABC1s, 41 per cent say workable against 46 per cent unworkable.

Overall more people than not (40 per cent to 35 per cent) agreed that the ban would cause a lot more trouble than it is worth, cost the Government many millions of pounds in lost tax revenue and should be abandoned now.

The survey also found huge concern that the ban will fuel a crime spree.

When asked if a ban on tobacco sales will mean a rise in illicit trading via criminal gangs trafficking in unregulated goods, a staggering 71 per cent (79 per cent in the UK) agreed.

David Campbell Bannerman, Chairman of the independent Freedom Association, said, “The public sense the injustice and impracticality of the generational smoking ban.

"You don’t have to like smoking to agree this is not respecting people’s freedoms. They may want to see an end to smoking but they do not think this is the way to do it.

“They have seen through the spin and grasp the sheer absurdity of a future world where a 47-year-old can legally purchase tobacco but his 46-year-old brother cannot.

“And who is going to enforce this most virtue-signalling of laws? The police largely ignore shoplifting today – can they be expected to demand that smokers produce their birth certificates?

"Newsagents will be expected to become policemen. It's time for Sir Keir to perform one of his well practised U-turns and ditch this farcical nonsense.”

Voters were also asked if it was reasonable to expect shop assistants to enforce any ban by asking customers in their thirties and forties, for example, for ID confirming their age.

Thirty per cent of Scots said it was unreasonable to expect them to do so (37 per cent across the UK).

This rises to almost four in ten Scottish women (37 per cent unreasonable) and 43 per cent of Scottish men. Younger people (18-29) think the same by a ratio of more than 2:1 (51 per cent to 23 per cent).

Worryingly for Labour it is their supporters who are most likely to want the proposed ban abandoned at 43 per cent, compared to 38 per cent from other political parties.

Almost half (46 per cent) of working-class voters traditionally Labour's core supporters want it dumped compared to 34 per cent of wealthier people.

Significantly, one third of those people polled do not want the ban implemented in Scotland even if it becomes law in England and Wales.

Despite the generational smoking ban being a devolved matter, the Scottish Government has said it will fall into line with Westminster.

However, 33 per cent want Scotland to remain outside the ban while 42 per cent say it should follow Westminster and 25 per cent do not know.