Retailers could find themselves facing a New Year spending squeeze as public confidence in the state of the economy took a nosedive, show recent industry data.
According to BRC-Opinium data released today (23), consumer expectations over the next three months of their personal financial situation remained at -3 in December, the same as in November.
Confidence in state of the economy worsened to -27 in December, down from -19 in November. Confidence on personal spending on retail also fell while confidence in personal spending overall dropped to +11 in December, down from +17 in November.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said,“Public confidence in the state of the economy took a nosedive, falling 8pts to -27.
"This created a widening gap between expectations of the economy and of people’s own finances, which remained unchanged. Perceptions were heavily skewed by age, with 18 to 35 year olds considerably more upbeat than older generations on both questions.
"The public’s spending intentions – both in retail and beyond – dropped 6pts, with expectations of spending in nearly every retail category falling. If these expectations are realised, retailers could find themselves facing a New Year spending squeeze just as they unveil their January sales.
“The weak spending intentions could pave the way for a challenging year for retailers, who face being buffeted by low consumer demand and £7bn of new costs from the Budget set to hit the industry in 2025."
Dickinson added that with sales growth unable to keep pace, retailers will have no choice but to raise prices or cut costs – closing stores and freezing recruitment.
"To mitigate the impact this will have on growth, Government must ensure that its proposed business rates reform does not result in any shops paying higher rates than they already do," she said.
Two-thirds of retail leaders respondents say they will raise prices in response to increased NI costs while food inflation could hit 4.2 per cent by the end of 2025, a leading retailers' body has said citing a recent survey.
British Retail Consortium (BRC) today (15) released the findings of a survey of CFOs (Chief Financial Officers) at 52 leading retailers, revealing significant concern about trading conditions over the next 12 months.
Sentiment languished at a concerning -57 with 70 per cent of respondents “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” about trading conditions over the coming 12 months, while just 13 per cent said they were “optimistic” or very “optimistic” (17 per cent were neither optimistic nor pessimistic).
The biggest concerns, all appearing in over 60 per cent of CFO’s “top 3 concerns for their business” were falling demand for goods and services, inflation for goods and services, and the increasing tax and regulatory burden.
When asked how they would be responding to the increases in employers’ National Insurance Contributions(NICs) (from April 2025), two-thirds stated they would raise prices (67 per cent), while around half said they would be reducing ‘number of hours/overtime’ (56 per cent), ‘head office headcount’ (52 per cent), and ‘stores headcount’ (46 per cent). Almost one third said the increased costs would lead to further automation (31 per cent).
The impact of the Budget on wider business investment was also clear, with 46 per cent of CFOs saying they would ‘reduce capital expenditure’ and 25 per cent saying they would ‘delay new store openings.’ 44 per cent of respondents expected reduced profits, which will further limit the capacity for investment.
This survey comes only a few weeks after 81 retail CEOs wrote to the Chancellor with their concerns about the economic consequences of the Budget. The letter noted that the retail industry’s costs could rise by over £7 billion in 2025 as a result of changes to employers’ NICs (£2.33 bn), National Living Wage increases (£2.73bn) and the reformed packaging levy (£2 billion).
The Budget is not the only challenge retailers are facing, with weak consumer confidence and low consumer demand also an issue. As part of the survey, CFOs offered their forecasts for the year ahead. These suggest that shop price inflation, currently at 0.5 per cent, will rise to an average of 2.2 per cent in the second half of 2025. This would be most pronounced for food, where inflation is expected to hit an average of 4.2 per cent in the second half of the year.
The forecast for sales was more muted. While sales growth is expected to improve on the 2024 level of just 0.7 per cent , at just 1.2 per cent this would still be below inflation. This means the industry could be facing a year of falling sales volumes at the same time as huge new costs resulting from the Budget.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive at the BRC, said, “With the Budget adding over £7bn to their bills in 2025, retailers are now facing into the difficult decisions about future investment, employment and pricing.
"As the largest private sector employer, employing many part-time and seasonal workers, the changes to the NI threshold have a disproportionate effect on both retailers and their supply chains, who together employ 5.7m people across the country.
“Retailers have worked hard to shield their customers from higher costs, but with slow market growth and margins already stretched thin, it is inevitable that consumers will bear some of the burden.
"The majority of retailers have little choice but to raise prices in response to these increased costs, and food inflation is expected to rise steadily over the year. Local communities may find themselves with sparser high streets and fewer retail jobs available. Government can still take steps to shore up retail investment and confidence.
"Business rates remain the biggest roadblock to new shops and jobs, with retailers paying over a fifth of the total rates bill. The Government must confirm the planned reforms will make a meaningful difference to retailers’ bills and that no shop will end up paying more.”
As UK and European retailers gear up for 2025, the grocery sector is poised for transformation, driven by renewed focus on fundamental retail practices, new revenue opportunities, and the growing demand for health and sustainability initiatives., highlights a new report.
A new report from IGD outlines six key trends that are set to shape the future of the grocery sector across the UK and Europe.
1. Optimising Retail Fundamentals for Success
While new technologies capture attention, UK and European retailers are reinforcing core retail fundamentals like stock availability, pricing, and promotions. Innovations like shelf-edge cameras and AI-driven stock management are improving these essential areas, ensuring a seamless shopping experience.
2. Exploring New Revenue Streams
As operating costs rise, UK retailers are diversifying their revenue sources by leveraging e-commerce technology, data monetisation, and B2B services. Tesco’s launch of Transcend, enabling other grocers to use its fulfilment tools, exemplifies the growing interest in non-traditional retail income streams.
3. Evolving Store Formats for Greater Flexibility
Retailers are adopting adaptable store designs that cater to evolving consumer needs and seasonal trends. The rise of modular store formats that feature event spaces, like FairPrice Finest in Singapore, is gaining traction in Europe, offering dynamic, customer-focused shopping experiences.
4. Seamless Connected Commerce
UK and European retailers are enhancing the integration of physical and digital retail, focusing on omnichannel experiences, loyalty programmes, and smart checkout solutions. AI-powered tools, like Target’s Store Companion, are simplifying store operations while enhancing customer engagement.
5. Health and Wellness Products Lead the Charge
Driven by growing health-conscious consumer demand, retailers in the UK and Europe are introducing more functional foods and health-focused products. The rise of initiatives like Cycle.me demonstrates a shift towards combining wellness with convenience, offering consumers greater choice in healthy, sustainable products.
6. Accelerating Sustainability Commitments
Retailers are intensifying their sustainability efforts, with a focus on reducing food waste, plastic packaging, and energy usage. Germany’s EDEKA Dorfmann sustainability store sets a new benchmark for eco-conscious retail, inspiring UK and European retailers to meet ambitious sustainability goals through innovative practices.
Stewart Samuel, Director of Retail Futures at IGD, commented, “As we move towards 2025, retailers must build on the foundation of global trends while ensuring they stay agile to rapidly evolving consumer demands.
"Focusing on the basics – stock availability, pricing, and promotions – remains critical to success. But at the same time, leveraging new revenue streams, embracing technological innovation, and championing health and sustainability are no longer optional; they are essential to staying competitive.
“Retailers who can successfully integrate these areas will not only future-proof their businesses but also build stronger relationships with increasingly conscious and demanding consumers.”
Demand for “hyper” limited-edition whisky produced by smaller, independent distilleries is on the rise with experts claiming that it is going to be the "next big thing" in the alcohol aisle.
Despite the onset of Dry January and a third of the population opting to steer clear of alcohol, whisky sales at Selfridges are defying the trend, with demand for exclusive, limited-edition bottles booming, The Times stated in a report.
The high-end department store, with flagship locations in London, Manchester, Birmingham, and a strong online presence, reports a significant uptick in interest for “hyper” limited-edition whiskies crafted by smaller, independent distilleries.
This marks a shift in the whisky market, which has traditionally been dominated by large Scottish and American producers.
According to Selfridges, sales of lesser-known brands have more than doubled over the past year, prompting the retailer to expand its whisky portfolio to over 1,000 bottles in 2023, with further growth planned for this year.
A particular focus has been on single cask releases, which yield between 200 and 300 bottles, depending on the “angels’ share”—the amount lost to evaporation during ageing.
One recent success story is The Hearach, a single malt from the Isle of Harris, whose 227-bottle single cask release sold out within an hour.
Andrew Bird, Selfridges’ head of food, attributes the surge to customers’ desire for uniqueness and exclusivity.
“We all love the idea of discovering and enjoying something that’s one-of-a-kind, that no one else has,” The Times quoted Bird as saying.
Many customers are buying these whiskies to collect, gift, or savour for special occasions.
The trend has been a boon for independent distilleries like Lochranza on the Isle of Arran. Stewart Bowman, Lochranza’s distillery manager, explained that the art of crafting whisky often involves a touch of serendipity.
“Whisky isn’t an exact science. We can fill identical barrels side by side, and they’ll come out differently. Occasionally, we stumble upon casks that are uniquely exceptional—it’s a bit of magic,” he said.
Bowman highlighted their latest limited-edition release, a 12-year-old single malt aged in a second-fill sherry hogshead cask, which boasts a “very sweet” profile with caramel and zesty orange notes.
“Limited editions represent a growing part of our business. Each one is a unique expression of what we do,” he added.
The growing appetite for rare whiskies reflects a broader consumer trend: a willingness to invest in distinctive products that could become “the next big thing.”
Sales of high-end sparkling teas soared over Christmas as it replaced champagne during festive toasts, suggesting that tea is winning new loyal fans as a soft drink version with “wellbeing” powers as well as a headache-free alternative to booze.
Sparkling tea is fast becoming a staple of the “nolo” ranges of supermarkets and drinks specialists amid the annual “dry January” marketing blitz.
The Buckinghamshire-based drinks company Real says demand for its sparkling tea, which costs about £10 a bottle, is soaring, The Guardian reported.
Over Christmas, sales of its fizz, which includes green tea-based Dry Dragon and Peony Blush (from white peony tea), were 72 per cent and 60 per cent up on 2023 levels in Ocado and Waitrose respectively. The company is also behind the wine merchant Berry Bros & Rudd’s £17 sparkling tea, of which 1,600 bottles were sold over the holiday period.
Last year, Twinings entered the fray with its own canned sparkling tea aimed at health-conscious consumers. The cans are almost £2 each but feature in some supermarket “meal deals”.
Apart from alcohol range, sparkling tea has also started giving competition to cola and lemonade for the lunchtime trade in supermarket drinks chillers.
The market is also seeing a huge demand of bubble tea, kombucha and even energy drinks containing tea.
According to Polina Jones, a food and drink expert at the data company NIQ, Britons are not necessarily “falling out of love” with tea, they are just drinking it in a different way.
A recent poll by the research company Mintel suggested that less than half of the nation – 45 per cent of adults – drink standard breakfast tea at least once a day. The amount being bought by Britons has tumbled by almost a fifth since 2020, it says.
Research points to a big opportunity for non-alcoholic drinks that actually taste good. A Mintel poll conducted last year found 59 per cent of adults had limited their consumption in the past 12 months, or did not drink alcohol.
Alcohol moderation is now a “mainstream” trend, according to Mintel’s Kiti Soininen. She points to the presence of tannins in tea, which are also a crucial component in the flavour profile of many wines.
“The absence of that pleasingly ‘mouth-drying’ element of tannins can be a factor in why alcohol alternatives taste too thin or too sweet,” The Guardian quoted Soininen as saying.
However, sparkling tea faces the “same hurdle as other alcohol alternatives in justifying its price” as just over half of adults told Mintel that the price of “nolo” drinks puts them off.
Food price inflation remained stable last month though experts are warning that with a series of price pressures on the horizon, shop price deflation is likely to become a thing of the past.
According to figures released by British Retail Consortium (BRC) on Thursday (9), shop price deflation was 1.0 per cent in December, down from deflation of 0.6 per cent in the previous month. This is below the three-month average rate of -0.8 per cent. Shop price annual growth remained at its lowest rate since August 2021.
Non-Food remained in deflation at -2.4 per cent in December.
Food inflation was unchanged at 1.8 per cent in December. This is in line with the three-month average rate of 1.8 per cent. The annual rate has eased considerably since the start of the year and inflation remained at its lowest rate since December 2021.
Fresh Food inflation was unchanged in December, at 1.2 per cent. This is slightly above the three-month average rate of 1.1 per cent. Inflation was its lowest since November 2021.
Ambient Food inflation edged up to 2.8 per cent in December, from 2.7 per cent in November. This is in line with the three-month average rate of 2.8 per cent and remained at its lowest since February 2022.
Commenting on the figures, Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, said, “Retailers discounted heavily for Black Friday this year as they attempted to make up for weaker sales earlier in the year.
"However, the later Black Friday timing brought many of the non-food discounts into the measurement period, making non-food prices look more deflationary than the underlying trend. With food inflation bottoming out at 1.8 per cent, and many price pressures on the horizon, shop price deflation is likely to become a thing of the past.
“As retailers battle the £7 billion of increased costs in 2025 from the Budget, including higher employer NI, National Living Wage, and new packaging levies, there is little hope of prices going anywhere but up.
"Modelling by the BRC and retail CFOs suggest food prices will rise by an average of 4.2 per cent in the latter half of the year, while Non-food will return firmly to inflation.
"Government can still take steps to mitigate these price pressures, and it must ensure that its proposed reforms to business rates do not result in any stores paying more in rates than they do already.”
Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ, added, “During December, shoppers benefited from both lower inflation than last year and bigger discounts as both food and non-food retailers were keen to drive sales after a slow start to the quarter.
"However, higher household costs are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon so retailers will need to carefully manage any inflationary pressure in the months ahead.”