UK FTSE Retailers issued 20 profit warnings in 2024, marking a slight improvement from the previous year, which saw 24 warnings, according to EY Parthenon’s latest Profit Warnings report.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, FTSE Retailers issued seven profit warnings, a significant increase from the one warning issued in Q3. Although the total number of warnings for the sector decreased in 2024, the proportion of listed retailers issuing warnings only saw a marginal decline, from 39 per cent to 38 per cent.
The report also highlights that three-quarters (75 per cent) of FTSE Personal Goods companies issued a warning in 2024 (10 warnings in total), whilst over half (52 per cent) of FTSE Household Goods and Home Construction companies also warned (19 warnings in total).
Half of all FTSE Retailers' profit warnings in 2024 cited weaker confidence as a leading factor behind the warnings.
Silvia Rindone, EY Partner and UK&I Retail Lead, said, "Profit warnings in the retail sector remained prevalent in 2024. Whilst festive trading reports were broadly positive, they highlight that demand is only part of the story.
"Despite an increase in disposable incomes in 2024, consumer confidence has been slow to rebound following the cost-of-living crisis, resulting in a disappointing end to the year for many retailers.
“It’s clear that shoppers are willing to spend if the price is right and the proposition is strong.
"However, retailers’ uncertainty over how much rising costs can be offset through automation and efficiency savings, or passed on in price increases, is making them almost universally cautious about the year ahead. Higher employment costs and the investment needed to adapt to changing consumer behaviour will challenge every retailer during 2025.”
One in five UK-listed companies issued a profit warning in 2024
Across all sectors, one in five (19 per cent) UK-listed companies issued a profit warning in 2024, the third highest annual proportion in 25 years, behind only the 2020 pandemic (35 per cent) and the impact of the dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 in 2001 (23 per cent).
By the end of 2024, 274 profit warnings had been issued – including 71 in Q4 – down slightly from the 294 issued during 2023.
The leading factor behind profit warnings in 2024 was contract and order cancellations or delays, cited in 34 per cent of warnings, including 39 per cent in Q4 – the highest quarterly percentage for this reason in more than 15 years. Increasing costs triggered nearly one in five (18 per cent ) warnings in the last 12 months.
Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon Partner and UK&I Turnaround and Restructuring Strategy Leader, said, “It’s clear that companies have faced an extraordinary succession of forecasting challenges since the pandemic, contending with interconnected disruptions to supply chains, material and energy costs, and the labour market, as well as higher interest rates.
"2024 was also an exceptional year for global geopolitical uncertainty and policy upheaval, with a record level of profit warnings linked to contract and spending delays as businesses held back from recruitment and investment. As a result, companies’ forecasting strategies need to respond to both short-term policy changes and deeper structural issues.
“Ordinarily, a sustained increase in company earnings pressures would be followed by a significant rise in insolvencies. But this cycle has been different. The availability of cheap, long-term debt and pandemic support provided breathing space for both businesses and stakeholders to explore consensual solutions and new restructuring options.
"However, more companies are now reaching a tipping point as cumulative pressures build.
"We don’t expect a huge uptick in insolvency levels in 2025, but we are now seeing more distress, and more stakeholders viewing insolvency processes as a real option in finding the best path forward.
“While the pace of profit warnings has eased slightly in early 2025, we’ve seen the recruitment sector continue to grapple with a downturn in activity across key geographies and sectors, before the increases in employer National Insurance Contributions and the National Living Wage take effect.
"Across the board, the road ahead remains rocky with challenges around trade, geopolitics, interest rates, and more.”
A good majority of Brits likes to support small businesses all the year round, shows a recent survey, suggesting affection for the UK’s small businesses remains strong.
According to a recent from American Express based on the survey of 2,000 adults, two-thirds (63 per cent) of consumers believe it is important to support small independent businesses all year round, and not just during seasonal peaks like Small Business Saturday, which in 2024 saw a collective £634m spent in-store and online.
Consumers highlighted various reasons why they would continue shopping small, including how these businesses boost the appeal of their local high street (53 per cent); the personalised experience they enjoy when shopping (50 per cent); and a desire to support their local community (43 per cent).
Brits will be taking an increasingly savvy approach to their spending, the research found.
Half (50 per cent) of all respondents say they will buy from alternative retailers if they feel they can get a better deal elsewhere, with a third (33 per cent) stating they would be encouraged to do so by specific offers.
Shoppers plan to lean into ways of achieving greater value for money this year, compared to last; buying pre-loved items, maximising seasonal sales, and using payment cards that offer rewards and points on their purchases were among the top ranked tactics.
Furthermore, Gen Z and Millennial shoppers ranked as the most thorough when it comes to their research before spending, particularly if planning to purchase big ticket items like furniture. Almost three quarters (73 per cent) of this age group said they either always or sometimes seek recommendations in advance.
Dan Edelman, UK general manager, merchant services at American Express, said, “The one guarantee with retail is that it never stands still, and it’s the retailers who best meet ever-evolving customer expectations that will succeed.
"Our research identifies some distinct priorities that are likely to influence consumer spending behaviour in the months ahead.
“For small businesses, it’s hugely positive to see continued recognition of, and affinity for, shopping small highlighted by the research.
"Small businesses pride themselves on the unique experiences and service they offer, something that clearly appeals to consumers.”
Small businesses are "18 times less likely" to offer an apprenticeship scheme as compared to large businesses, a recent report has claimed, adding that some small businesses are not taking proactive steps to recruit apprentices from lower socioeconomic backgrounds.
Co-op in a report released on Monday (10) points out how more than a third (38 per cent) of school leavers face a lack of apprenticeship opportunities in their local area.
Co-op finds that two in three (68 per cent) school leavers agree that apprenticeships are more important now than in previous years, with almost half (48 per cent) seeing an apprenticeship as the most beneficial way of entering the world of work.
However, despite those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds being more likely to apply for an apprenticeship (73 per cent v 66 per cent), many are facing barriers to accessing apprenticeships.
Co-op’s research also included a survey of business leaders, which found that seven in ten agree that a socioeconomic gap exists when it comes to hiring apprentices. It also finds that small businesses are 18 times less likely to offer an apprenticeship scheme compared to large businesses.
Amongst those that do, one in five small businesses are not taking proactive steps to recruit apprentices from lower socioeconomic backgrounds.
The top reasons for this lack of proactive recruitment include: a lack of time and resources (38 per cent), uncertainty about how to access diverse talent pools (33 per cent), insufficient funding to support apprenticeship programmes (29 per cent), and concerns over increased training costs (14 per cent).
Furthermore, businesses in less advantaged areas lack higher level apprenticeship schemes, with only a quarter (26 per cent) of business leaders in these areas offering level six or seven apprenticeships, states the report.
Claire Costello, Co-op’s Chief People and Inclusion Officer, says, “The research paints a picture of the real and widespread relationship between an individual’s socioeconomic background and their unequal access to apprenticeship opportunities post-school.
"There has never been a more important time for the Government and UK businesses to stand up to reality and do more to ensure access to apprenticeships is fair and equitable for all young people.
"Someone’s background should not limit their career potential which is why we’re calling on an amendment to the IfATE Bill - to level the playing field so everyone can have a fair shot at reaching their full potential.”
The research comes as Co-op has written to the Education Secretary calling on the Government to give Skills England a statutory duty to improve social mobility across the country.
January sales kicked off a solid month for retail with stores delivering their strongest growth in almost two years, shows industry report released today (11).
According to retail body British Retail Consortium (BRC), UK total retail sales increased by 2.6 per cent year on year in January, against a growth of 1.2 per cent in January 2024. This was above the 3-month average growth of 1.1 per cent and above the 12-month average growth of 0.8 per cent.
Food sales increased by 2.8 per cent year on year in January, against a growth of 6.1 per cent in January 2024. This was above the 3-month average growth of 2.3 per cent and below the 12-month average growth of 3 per cent, shows BRC report.
Commenting on the figures, Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said, “January sales kicked off a solid month for retail with stores delivering their strongest growth in almost two years, albeit on a weak comparable.
"Consumers headed to the shops to refresh their homes for the year ahead, taking advantage of big discounts on furniture, bedding and other home accessories.
"With growth across nearly all categories, only toys and baby equipment remained in decline. While the bouts of stormy weather put a temporary dampener on demand, sales growth held up well throughout the rest of the month. This was also helped by the earlier start of the reporting period, adding a few more post-Christmas shopping days into the mix.
“Whether this strong performance can hold out for the coming months is yet to be seen. Inflationary pressures are rising, compounded by £7bn of new costs facing retailers, including higher employer national insurance contributions, higher National Living Wage, and a new packaging levy.
"Many businesses will be left with little choice but to increase prices, and cut investment in jobs and stores. Government can mitigate this by ensuring its proposed business rates reforms do not result in any shop paying more in business rates.”
Commenting on food and drink sector performance, Sarah Bradbury, CEO of IGD, said, "The current climate of economic uncertainty is reflected in IGD’s January shopper confidence index, which has declined by 3 points.
"With unemployment at 4.4 per cent (+0.4 per cent vs this time last year), shoppers have responded by employing strategies to control their spend.
"The notable increase in volume over value sales suggests a shift towards private label products and a change in purchasing categories, as shoppers anticipate further price rises for food and drink.”
High streets need to optimise for midweek office workers as Brits return to office, as shown by latest data on footfall, suggesting areas of focus for retailers such as extending trading hours in the evening and paying attention on grab-and-go meals.
According to the latest data from retail tech specialist MRI Software, retail footfall bucked seasonal trends in January, rising +1.4 per cent year on year across all UK retail destinations,
This marks the first annual increase in January footfall since 2016 (+1.2 per cent), outside of the pandemic period, suggesting that a stronger return to office work is driving retail visits as businesses push employees back to in-person work.
As expected, post-holiday footfall dropped sharply month on month, falling by almost -20 per cent across all UK retail destinations.
The decline was most pronounced in the second week of January, coinciding with schools and offices reopening, exacerbated by heavy snowfall and widespread travel disruptions.
High streets bore the steepest decline, with footfall plunging -22.4 per cent from December to January, followed by shopping centres at -21.7 per cent, while retail parks fared slightly better with a -16.5 per cent decline.
However, the shift back to office-based work was evident throughout January.
Weekday footfall rose by +1.6 per cent year on year, while weekend footfall dropped by -3.5 per cent, underscoring the growing weekday retail opportunity.
MRI Software’s Central London Back to Office benchmark showed a +1.4 per cent annual footfall increase, largely driven by a +4.4 per cent uplift during early evening hours (17:00-20:00). The trend suggests that after-work activity is picking up, offering retailers an opportunity to tap into office workers' midweek spending habits.
Data from MRI Software’s Consumer Pulse report reveals that evening shopping (post-5PM) is now the most common time for office workers to visit retail destinations, with 34 per cent preferring to shop after work.
Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays see the highest overlap between office attendance and retail activity, with 58 per cent of respondents working in the office on Tuesdays and aligning shopping trips for midweek convenience.
Additionally, 31 per cent of respondents reported visiting high streets during lunch hours—more than any other retail destination—highlighting the importance of proximity and convenience for office workers on their break.
Sales of low and no-alcohol beer were 20 per cent higher in December than January, shows recent data, suggesting that traditionally the month of abstinence has been overtaken by December in terms of alcohol consumption.
According to a recent report in The Times, supermarket Tesco experienced record demand for alcohol-free beverages in the four weeks running up to Christmas with sales up by more than 15 per cent on the previous year. The demand was largely driven by young Brits.
According to David Albon, a beer and cider buyer at Tesco, quite contrary to five years ago when the main demand for no and low drinks came in ‘dry January’, it is now a trend, especially in young people, to moderate drinking at these key occasions of the year as well.
“It’s a very different picture to what we were seeing, even just five years ago, when the main demand for no and low drinks came in ‘dry January’.”
Tesco confirmed that interest in dry January is still growing, with demand for no and low-alcohol wine particularly strong during the month and sales up 15 per cent. Sales of alcohol-free beer were up 10 per cent and alcohol-free spirits up 5 per cent.
Among the most popular choices from the chain in January were 12-packs of Corona 0.0%, with demand up by more than 250 per cent ,and 10-packs of Guinness 0.0, up by more than 100 per cent.
Tesco says the nation’s changing relationship with booze is seeing sales of alcohol-free drinks increase across every month of the year. It added that the increasing quality of low and no-alcohol alternatives was encouraging consumers to buy in multi-pack sizes rather than single bottles or cans.
Another trend giving momentum to alcohol-free range is "zebra stripping", when people alternate between alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks on a celebratory night in order not to get too drunk.
In the words of Sarah Holland, a buyer at Waitrose, 2024 has certainly been the year of zebra striping, driven by the wonderful variety of delicious no and low which are available on the market now.
This comes weeks after IWSR data reported similar picture.
The firm stated that the total UK no and low market is expected to have more than doubled in 2024 versus 2023. Preliminary data shows no-alcohol beer grew 20 per cent in 2024 vs 2023 while alcohol-free beer now accounts for more than 2 per cent of total beverage alcohol market sales in the UK, highlighting just how big a part the subcategory is beginning to play in the overall drinks sector.
IWSR added that growth of no-alcohol spirits has slowed, but is expected to have grown +7 per cent in 2024 vs 2023 while sales of low-alcohol wine fell -5 per cent in 2024 vs 2023, no-alcohol wine grew by +8 per cent.