The world’s largest olive oil producer, Deoleo, has predicted a significant drop in olive oil prices, offering relief to households battered by years of rising food costs.
The Spanish company, which owns major brands including Bertolli and Carapelli, announced that the worst of the weather-driven crisis affecting the olive oil industry appears to be over. Deoleo forecasts that prices could halve in the coming months, following a record high caused by droughts and other climate-related challenges.
The anticipated price drop comes as this season’s olive harvest is expected to surpass last year’s, marking a turnaround for an industry that has struggled with extreme weather events in recent years.
This news will likely bring respite to shoppers, many of whom have seen the cost of olive oil double on supermarket shelves. In the UK, prices have surged by 150 per cent since late 2021, according to data from the Office for National Statistics, with olive oil becoming a symbol of wider food inflation pressures.
Deoleo, the maker of brands such as Bertolli and Carbonell, acknowledged that the olive oil industry has been through "one of the most difficult moments" in its history.
Miguel Ángel Guzmán, chief sales officer at Deoleo, told CNBC: “We are still going through a phase of tension in olive oil prices, especially in the higher quality oils, such as extra virgin. However, the outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilise and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases.”
Years of droughts and extreme weather across southern Europe, the Mediterranean’s olive oil heartland, have devastated harvests and driven prices to historic highs. Spain, which produces 40 per cent of the world’s olive oil, was particularly hard hit, with production falling to just 850,000 tonnes last year.
However, conditions are improving. The International Olive Oil Council predicts a better harvest this year across key producing countries, including Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Tunisia. Reports from Spanish farmers indicate that production could rebound to 1.4 million tonnes, nearly double last year’s output.
Guzmán added that wholesale prices are expected to decline between November and January, continuing to fall well into 2025—provided weather conditions remain stable. Current supermarket prices in Spain, which range from £7.50-£8.34 per litre, could drop to £4.17 per litre as the market stabilises.
