A new study has unveiled a “seismic shift” in the types of food stores springing up globally over the past 15 years, with serious health implications for vulnerable low and middle-income countries.
The study by researchers from Deakin University in Australia and experts from UNICEF, analysing data from 97 countries on retail changes over the last 15 years, found that the number of chain supermarkets, hypermarkets and convenience stores per 10,000 people increased by 23.6 per cent globally over the period.
With market domination by these types of retailers being the norm in high-income countries, low and middle-income countries are copying the trend and catching up fast, the research noted.
In South Asia and Southeast Asia, the number of chain retail outlets per person has increased by nearly 10 per cent per year, with a corresponding drop off in independently owned traditional stores.
And in a sign that retail is set for an even bigger shake up, grocery sales from digital retailers increased by 325 per cent over a 10-year period across 27 countries.
The researchers showed for the first time that on a global scale, change in the density of chain retail outlets and the increasing amount of unhealthy food sold by them was associated with an increase in the prevalence of obesity, which continues to rise in every region of the world and is very much a global concern.
“Large chain retailers usually hold significant market power, using their dominance over food manufacturers to determine what food is available and what price it’s sold at, which has led to the widespread availability of unhealthy foods,” Dr Tailane Scapin, from Deakin University and the study’s lead author, commented.
“Large chain retailers and food manufacturers also use aggressive marketing strategies to promote unhealthy foods, contributing to poor dietary habits and, as consequence, negatively impacting their customers’ health.”
Dr Scapin said immediate action was needed to address the impact of changing retail food environments.
“Our findings underscore the importance of regulating the retail environment to make sure that it’s healthy foods that are promoted, while the marketing and promotion of unhealthy food products is limited,” she said.
“In low and middle-income countries where supermarkets and convenience stores are spreading the fastest, governments have a time-limited opportunity to make sure that these new, modern retail stores actually promote healthy food. We know from the experience in North America, Europe and other high-income regions that once retailers are established, they are very hard to change.”
The researchers called for urgent action from governments, from retailers and from the health promotion workforce to prioritise healthier retail food environments that support sustainable and healthy dietary patterns and positive public health outcomes.
“With this research published on World Obesity Day which has a theme of ‘Changing systems for healthier lives’, it’s important that the promising action being taken by forward-thinking retailers and governments is scaled up globally,” Dr Scapin said.
The full study report, with data by country, by geographic region and by country income group, appears in the publication in Nature Food and in an interactive dashboard here.
Chocolate purchasing intent for Easter is expected to slide due to factors like the ongoing cost of living crisis and growing concerns over sustainability while Easter-themed wrapping paper is expected to be in demand this year, states a recent report.
According to a UK consumer survey by product intelligence platform Vypr, 39 per cent of people are cutting back on chocolate eggs this year, while 24 per cent plan to spend less than £5 on Easter gifts.
While health concerns have led 29 per cent of consumers to scale back their Easter egg purchases, sustainability is a factor for many shoppers.
The desire for more eco-friendly options is evident for some, as 17 per cent of people are looking to choose gifts with less packaging, and another 17 per cent are prioritising items wrapped in less plastic.
Additionally, 15 per cent are opting to skip Easter altogether this year to avoid contributing to waste.
Despite these preferences, many shoppers are still planning to spend this Easter, although most say it’s going to be very low-key, with the majority (53 per cent) expecting to spend less than £10 in total, covering gifts, decorations, and entertaining.
Encouragingly for retailers, over a third (35 per cent) of consumers plan to spend between £10 and £50.
Chocolate eggs will still play a key part in these purchases, but for some, alternatives are gaining popularity. Cash gifts (10 per cent) and toys (9 per cent) are among the most popular choices.
Additionally, 10 per cent are looking for chocolate that isn’t egg-shaped, while 8 per cent will be buying Easter decorations.
Vypr noted that many supermarkets, convenience stores and wider retailers have expanded their range of Easter decorations this year, with 21 per cent of shoppers saying they have noticed the increased variety.
However, only 8 per cent report that this is likely to persuade them to purchase. Overall, 54 per cent of people do not decorate for Easter, and of those who do, 14 per cent plan to reuse last year’s decorations, while only 10 per cent will buy new ones.
Ben Davies, founder of Vypr, commented, “Retailers have plenty to consider when planning their 2025 Easter ranges.
"A quarter of shoppers are looking to gift-wrap Easter presents this year, making Easter-themed wrapping paper a clear opportunity to drive sales.
"Meanwhile, one in ten plan to buy Easter-themed clothing for children – which is something supermarkets could tap into to boost seasonal sales.
“Sustainability is also becoming a bigger priority for consumers, and demand for eco-friendly alternatives will only grow. This is a key area for NPD teams to explore, ensuring their ranges appeal to increasingly eco-conscious shoppers.”
Majority of Brits feel that the economy is heading in the wrong direction, and this feeling is leading many to cut everyday spend, defer big ticket buying, and save more, a recent report has stated.
According to the latest quarterly Consumer Pulse survey from KPMG in the UK, three in five people say that the UK economy is worsening, leading even consumers feeling financially secure to cut back on spending.
The number of people feeling that the UK economy is worsening grew by fifteen percentage points in the last three months to 58 per cent.
But despite the perception of a downbeat economic picture, the majority (55 per cent) of people currently feel financially secure (which is just 2 percentage points lower than the previous quarter).
The research gauged the confidence of 3000 UK consumers and assessed their buying behaviour over the last quarter.
Those feeling insecure about their finances grew from 21 per cent to 24 per cent over the last three months, but within that only 15 per cent of people reported that their finances are such that they are having to actively cut discretionary spend to pay for essentials – with a further 2 per cent saying they are incurring debt to pay bills.
The growing negative economic perception is leading more consumers to take spending action than those who say their financial situation means they need to, with:
43 per cent saying they are reducing spend on everyday items.
36 per cent saying they are saving more as a contingency.
29 per cent saying they are deferring big ticket purchases.
19 per cent feeling less inclined to leave their current employment.
Reflecting upon the findings, Linda Ellett, head of consumer, retail and leisure for KPMG UK, said, “Our research continues to show that while only a minority of consumers feel financially insecure, the majority feel that the economy is heading in the wrong direction.
"And this nervousness about the economy is leading many, including some of those who are secure in their current personal financial circumstances, to cut everyday spend, defer big ticket buying, and save more.
“Some may be taking this action as they prepare for higher costs, such as a new mortgage deal or the higher cost of travel.
"But other cautious consumers are certainly preparing for the potential impact on them from what they believe to be a worsening economy. This week’s Spring Statement needs to give people the confidence in the longer-term UK economic outlook.”
Comparing consumer spending in the first quarter of 2025 to the results from the final quarter of 2024:
Eating out remains the most common target (38 per cent) for those cutting spend. Takeaway was second, with 34 per cent of consumers reporting less spend over the last three months. The number of people saying they are cutting back was 2 percentage points higher than the last survey.
The number of consumers reporting they cut clothing and footwear spend in the last three months rose 3 percentage points from the last survey to 32 per cent.
Cost cutting behaviour when shopping was once again evident, with:
Nearly a quarter of consumers (23 per cent) saying they shopped for promotional or discount goods more in the last three months.
Just over a fifth (22 per cent) of consumers saying they bought more own brand or value goods in the last three months.
A fifth (21 per cent) of consumers saying they used loyalty schemes more this quarter.
70 per cent of consumers said that price was a top purchasing driver for everyday items – rising 3 percentage points from the last survey.
Holiday spend was again the most common ‘big ticket’ quarterly spend, with 21 per cent of consumers reporting related spend in the last three months. 30 per cent of consumers say they will spend on a holiday in next three months.
45 per cent of consumers said they bought no ‘big ticket’ items in December, January and February. And 38 per cent said they won’t make any larger purchases in the coming three months.
Cost-cautious Britons are spending more on home-cooked meals, risking to bring inflation back to grocery stores, a recent report has stated.
According to research by Retail Economics and NatWest, UK consumers expect to be spending more money on in the next three months on groceries while less on eating and drinking out.
It reflects a social phenomenon stemming back to the pandemic when people got into the habit of attempting restaurant-quality meals at home. Supermarkets subsequently put more effort into their premium ranges and have profited from a boom in demand.
Richard Lim, chief executive officer at Retail Economics, also said that Britain’s grocers should be able to reap the rewards of strong demand for high quality, niche and premium ranges, while keeping a lid on the price of more basic products.
“Grocers really need to focus on being competitive across those core essentials and then they will try to protect margins in other parts of the basket,” Lim said. “There might be deflation in some areas, inflation in other areas.”
Last week, supermarket Asda , slashed prices on 1,500 products in an effort to win back droves of customers who have switched to its rivals.
However, Bloomberg analysts state that price wars are "not necessarily incompatible with rising inflation", when broader economic conditions lift cost pressures.
Charles Allen, a senior retail analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said one of the fiercest price wars in the UK came during the high inflation of the late 1970s.
With the upcoming sharp increase in employment taxes and another steep hike in the minimum wage, retailers are expected to pass on some costs to customers, hence increase prices.
Supermarkets Sainsbury’s and Tesco together employ nearly half a million workers, and collectively the two supermarkets are facing an extra £390 million bill due to the budget measures, states the Bloomberg report.
“They’ve had many rounds of trying to operate as efficiently as possible in order to minimise prices for the consumer,” Jessica Moulton, senior partner at McKinsey, said. “The grocers are at their limits.”
Food inflation accelerated to 3.3 per cent in the year to January, and market surveys suggest it stayed high in recent weeks.
The retail association has expressed deep concern over the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showing that the UK retail sector has lost nearly a quarter of a million jobs over the past five years.
The British Independent Retailers Association (Bira), which works with over 6,000 independent retailers across the UK, has highlighted the devastating impact these job losses are having on high streets nationwide.
The ONS figures reveal that as of December 2024, there were 2.88 million retail jobs in the UK, with the four-quarter average dropping to 2.84 million jobs. This represents a decline of 70,000 from the previous year and 249,000 fewer jobs than five years ago.
The data further highlights that full-time jobs have fallen by 106,000 and part-time roles by 142,000 compared to five years ago, painting a concerning picture for the sector that has traditionally been a significant employer across the UK.
Andrew Goodacre
Andrew Goodacre
"These alarming figures confirm what we've been hearing from our members across the country," said Andrew Goodacre, Bira CEO. "Independent retailers are facing unprecedented challenges, and this record number of job losses reflects the severe pressure on high streets throughout the UK. In the past year alone, we've seen over 14,000 independent shops close their doors permanently, with many more struggling to survive.
"The impact is felt most acutely in our town centres, where independent retailers have traditionally been the backbone of local economies. With a 14 per cent vacancy rate on high streets across the UK, we are witnessing the hollowing out of once-vibrant communities."
Bira is particularly concerned about the disproportionate impact on part-time jobs, which have seen the steepest decline. Part-time positions are crucial for many independent retailers who rely on flexible staffing models to manage costs while maintaining customer service levels.
Mr Goodacre added: "Independent retailers need meaningful support now more than ever. This isn't just about preserving jobs – it's about protecting the character and vitality of our high streets. We are calling on the government to implement an urgent review of business rates, provide targeted relief for small retailers, and develop a comprehensive strategy to revitalise town centres."
Bira's conversations with members indicate that retailers across the board are expressing significant concerns about their ability to maintain current staffing levels over the next 12 months, with rising operational costs cited as the primary challenge.
The number of retail jobs in 2024 slumped to the lowest since the data began in 1996, despite total jobs in the economy continuing to rise, shows the latest report by the ONS,
there were 2.88m jobs in retail in December 2024.This is traditionally the high point of the year, with retailers employing more people during the key Christmas quarter. The four-quarter average was 2.84m jobs, 70,000 fewer than at the same point last year, and 249,000 fewer than five years ago.
On a four-quarter average there were 1.50m part-time and 1.34m full-time jobs. The number of full-time jobs is down 106,000 on five years ago. Meanwhile, the number of part-time jobs is down 142,000 on five years ago.
Commenting on these figures, Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive at the British Retail Consortium, said, “The number of retail jobs in 2024 was the lowest since the data began in 1996, despite total jobs in the economy continuing to rise. While this decline in retail jobs should be a concern to communities everywhere, worse could be yet to come.
"Last October’s Budget forced retailer wage bills up by over £5bn, and both the rise in employer NICs and increased National Living Wage have made hiring significantly more costly.
"A recent survey of retail Finance Directors showed that half were planning hiring freezes or cutting jobs, both in head offices and stores across the UK.
“Jobs cuts are likely to fall disproportionately on part-time roles. 200,000 part-time jobs have already been lost over the last seven years, and up to 160,000 more part-time roles are at risk in the next three years.
"This matters: flexible retail roles are an important stepping stone for many people, whether it’s a first job out of school or a part-time role for those returning to the workforce or with caring responsibilities.
"As the Government’s welfare reforms aim to increase the numbers in work, flexible retail roles offer a first rung back onto the career ladder.
“Retailers face uncertainty around the new Growth and Skills Levy and on implementation of the Employment Rights Bill which could make it more difficult to offer flexible part-time roles or retrain people.
"Reducing part-time and reskilling opportunities in retail would not only be a loss to the industry, the UK’s largest private sector employer, but would also punish the millions of people who benefit from flexible, local jobs.
"If Government can ensure these policies help, rather than hinder, recruitment and investment in training, the industry can help provide routes back into work for those who need it.
"Government must join the dots on these different policies to create a win-win for employees, employers, and the wider economy.”