Shoppers' spending on FMCG saw a rise in the third quarter of this year, shows a latest industry data, revealing a narrowing gap between own-label and branded products as the growth rates indicate shoppers are now starting to treat themselves to small indulgences again.
According to latest NIQ Retail Spend Barometer, value growth in the FMCG sector was driven by an uptick in the personal care (+10.7 per cent), homecare (+8.7 per cent), fresh food (+5.8 per cent), and snacking (+5.1 per cent) categories. Beverages returned to growth (+2.1 per cent), from a decline of 0.9 per cent in Q2. Meanwhile, the biggest declines were experienced in tobacco (-7.9 per cent) and paper products (-4.1 per cent).
NIQ attributed the rebound largely to the sales boost from the Euros and Olympics, which took place in July and August, and slightly sunnier weather compared to last year. Despite improved consumer confidence in Q2, this stalled in Q3 as economic and financial uncertainty continued to impact consumers. However, within FMCG, lower inflation is now leading to better volume growth.
The NIQ data also reveals a narrowing gap between own-label and branded products as the growth rates indicate shoppers are now starting to treat themselves to small indulgences again. In Q1 of this year, FMCG branded unit growth was recorded at 0.7 per cent compared to 3.1 per cent for own-label. However, in Q3 branded unit growth sits at 1.1 per cent versus 1.7 per cent for own-label.
Ben Morrison, Retail Services Director UK & IRE at NIQ, said: “The first eight months of the year so far have been more optimistic compared to 2023, but shoppers remain cautious. We are seeing more considered purchasing, particularly within T&D as consumers opt to replace products when they must rather than upgrade a working one.
"This also plays to the desire for more sustainable living – beyond just energy efficiency – which is adding to the decision process. When it comes to upgrades, credit schemes offer immediate gratification and are used more often by those on higher incomes to enable upgrades for non-essential big-ticket items”.
“As for FMCG, retailers will be pleased to see a slight increase in the rate of growth in the sector in Q3, largely boosted by the big sporting events over the summer. With the gap closing between branded and own-label items, shoppers are open to spending on certain items.
"However, building financial resilience remains a challenge for consumers. According to GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer, a quarter of consumers reported they were ‘just managing’ at the end of Q3 and 1 in 3 said they were unlikely to be able to save in the year ahead. Shoppers, therefore, remain cautious, so as we enter the golden quarter, promotions across retailers are going to be key in persuading savvy shoppers to trade up.”
UK food businesses are expected to face significant financial challenges in 2025, grappling with multiple cost pressures. The cost of food items is predicted to rise by up to 4.9 per cent next year, according to the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD).
IGD’s latest Viewpoint Special Report, “Hungry For Growth”, highlights food inflation as one of the most significant challenges for UK households. However, it also places the increase in food prices within a wider context of overall industry pressures.
IGD’s forecast for food inflation in 2025 is based on a full overview of all the cost pressures on food businesses for the next 12 months. While energy and commodity prices will remain stable albeit a little higher in 2025, there will be significantly increased employment and regulatory costs for food businesses in the coming year which will mean food inflation could hit anywhere between 2.4 per cent - 4.9 per cent.
In July 2024, IGD forecast that retail food inflation in 2025 would average 2.1 per cent. This forecast has been revised upward principally on the basis of measures announced in the budget.
In forming these new forecasts, IGD assumed that major policy changes raising business costs will arrive in three phases over the next year:
April: rising costs to employment staff due to increases in National Insurance and National Living Wage
July: rising costs of food imports due to implementation of the Windsor Agreement framework with the EU
Oct: first payments are due to fall on Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), increasing costs on packaging
IGD estimates that the food sector will only be able to absorb between 20 per cent - 40 per cent of these costs, meaning the remainder will be passed onto the consumer.
Food inflation is likely to continue to exceed inflation in other items, not just in 2025 but also 2026.
“We do not see food prices going down in the foreseeable future," said IGD Chief Economist James Walton. "The rising cost of living, combined with increased employment and regulatory costs, will keep inflation elevated. Consumers will undoubtedly look for ways to save money, but the impact of these cost pressures will be felt across the economy.
"For the food sector, the increased financial burdens are becoming harder to absorb, particularly for smaller players in the sector. The cumulative impact of multiple changes landing within a short period of time will drive significant cost into all food businesses across the UK.”
Most (70 per cent) of consumers are more likely to visit the high street after online retailers introduce return fees, shows a recent survey, indicating a shift in consumer buying habits.
According to the findings from consumer insights platform Vypr, 70 per cent of shoppers say they are now more likely to visit bricks and mortar stores rather than shop online due to the added costs of returning unwanted items.
The research highlights a growing dissatisfaction with the rise of online return fees, with 47 per cent of consumers stating they would avoid purchasing from retailers that charge for returns as they don’t believe their products are unique enough. A further 27 per cent said they would stop shopping with such retailers as a matter of principle.
While online shopping continues to be a dominant force, the research signals potential cracks in its convenience. Brands like Boohoo and ASOS, which have recently introduced return charges, may be particularly vulnerable as shoppers lack strong brand loyalty.
27 per cent of consumers said they think these retailers offer similar products to their competitors, making it easier to shop around for better deals. 53 per cent of those surveyed will be buying less from ASOS after the charges were introduced and 51 per cent shop less with Boohoo.
The growing frustration with online shopping is further exacerbated by issues with sizing and quality. According to Vypr’s survey, the most common reasons consumers return online purchases are due to items being smaller than expected (26 per cent), lower quality than anticipated (17 per cent), and larger-than-expected sizing (14 per cent).
Ben Davies, founder of Vypr, commented, “The rise in return charges reflects a broader shift in consumer sentiment. As confidence in online sizing and quality inconsistencies drops, many shoppers are reconsidering where they spend their money. One in 10 consumers say they typically order multiple sizes of the same item, knowing they’ll return some.
"Retailers must do more to improve size guides and product descriptions to help shoppers make better-informed decisions from the outset.
"As online shopping becomes more expensive and less distinct, it’s possible we could be witnessing a return to high street shopping — not only as a more reliable option but also as a more sustainable one, given the reduced packaging waste compared to online purchases.”
The research also reveals growing support for independent retailers, with 60 per cent of consumers now preferring to shop with smaller, independent brands over larger, fast-fashion retailers. Additionally, 64 per cent of respondents reported receiving better customer service from independents, compared to the experience with major online retailers.
Retailers should prepare for late rush of shoppers looking for fresh food, centre pieces for the dinner table and last-minute gifts, suggests experts forecasting that grocery spend is set to hit £10 billion in the two weeks leading up to Dec 21 with £6bn being spent at the grocery multiples
According to new data released NIQ today (11), total till sales growth steadied at UK supermarkets (+3.7 per cent) in the last four weeks ending Nov 30 2024, down from 4.0 per cent in the previous month. This slowdown in growth is likely due to milder weather, Black Friday distraction and shoppers holding out until early December for the big Christmas shop.
NIQ data also reveals with shoppers actively looking for discounts, over the last four weeks there was a boost to visits to stores (+5.7 per cent) ahead of online shopping occasions (+0.6 per cent). As a result online share of FMCG was at +13.1 per cent compared to last year +13.4 per cent.
Savvy shoppers capitalise on promotions
The percentage of sales purchased on promotion increased to 25 per cent from 24 per cent in October. Shoppers are seeking out savvy ways to save money and retailers and brands are hoping to drive incremental sales and basket spend through both more in-store promotional activity and increased loyalty app discounts.
"Personalised Savings" is thought to have unlocked this discretionary spend with 38 per cent of households set to use vouchers and points saved up for their Christmas groceries this year.
Black Friday also coincided with payday at the end of the month, seeing value growth sustained at the Grocery Multiples in the last week of November. Shoppers cashed in on higher ticket priced items while on promotion, such as 25 per cent off six bottles of wine and beauty and gifting offers.
However, this likely resulted in holding back spend on other items such as storage cupboard food, frozen and household basics where growth was flat.
Health and beauty wins out
In terms of category growth, NIQ data shows that the Health & Beauty category experienced an uplift in sales (+6.9 per cent), likely helped by Black Friday discounts. However, beer, wines and spirits (BWS) continue to struggle as value sales fell (-3.8 per cent) and there was no corresponding increase in unit sales (-2.5 per cent) compared to a year ago.
Looking ahead to Christmas celebrations with family, NIQ data reveals that 50 per cent of shoppers still expect to dine with turkey while 22 per cent opt for chicken, with beef following at 20 per cent. And 12 per cent opting for vegetarian or vegan alternatives.
Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK Head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: “Sales are going to accelerate in the two weeks up to the 21st December. The biggest single week will be week ending 21st December with £6bn being spent at the grocery multiples, which is a third of the 4 weekly spend in one week.
"Food retailers can prepare for this late rush starting next week as shoppers will be looking for fresh food, centre pieces for the dinner table and last-minute gifts, including a trade up to premium items”.
Watkins adds: “Last year with food inflation at 7 per cent (BRC NIQ SPI), volumes fell in December 2023 however, this year NIQ expects volume growth of around +1 per cent.
"Even with 50 per cent of households saying it is important for them to make savings on their Christmas groceries this year, 66% still expect they will spend the same or more than last year (NIQ Homescan Survey) and 38 per cent intend to use points or vouchers saved up. So there are reasons to be cheerful”.
More than two in five UK retail employees (43 per cent) were at risk of quitting their jobs between July and September this year, an 11 per cent increase from the previous three months of 2024, according to the Retail Trust and AlixPartners’ latest Retail People Index.
The index, which surveyed 1,100 UK retail employees in July, August and September, found the percentage of people working whilst physically or mentally unwell, also increased to 41 per cent over this time. This is a 14 per cent year-on-year increase, and a 7 per cent rise from the previous quarter of 2024.
Younger retail workers, aged 19 to 24, and LGBTQ+ employees had the biggest ‘flight risk’, or propensity to quit, of 47 per cent, due to feeling more anxious and depressed about work and also least likely to feel they were recognised for doing something well.
Retail employees aged 19 to 34 showed the highest levels of presenteeism, where employees work when physically or mentally unwell, with half working while unwell.
And female workers experienced some of the biggest mental health declines over the period, with an overall wellbeing score drop from 72 per cent in July to 52 per cent in September for women aged 55 to 64. Those aged 25 to 34 also experienced lower wellbeing in July and September.
Staff were asked, by the Retail Trust’s and employee engagement platform WorkL’s online happiness assessment, about their mental and physical health and how valued and fulfilled they feel, to create an overall wellbeing score for the Retail People Index.
Questions around pay, recognition, relationships with managers, work-related anxiety and workplace safety were among those used to separately help calculate the likelihood of them leaving their jobs or working while unwell between July and September 2024.
Chris Brook-Carter, chief executive of the Retail Trust, said, “There are often unrealistic expectations that the summer will be a less stressful time for people working in retail, but the reality is it often brings added pressures for working parents and those having to put in extra shifts to cover colleagues’ holidays.
“That's why it's important employers don’t underestimate the support their staff members need during the summer months, especially as they'll need a happy and healthy workforce to rely on as they gear up for the busy shopping period at the end of the year.
“Investing in staff wellbeing and retention during this crucial period will allow retailers to be more productive and successful for the rest of the year, thanks to the fundamental link between the hope, health and happiness of a business’s workforce and its economic resilience.
“Thank you to AlixPartners and to our data partner WorkL for their support in creating this valuable index. Our hope is that businesses from across the retail sector and beyond can now build this insight into their wellbeing strategies as they look to the tailored support their people will need in 2025.”
Laura Bond, director at AlixPartners said, “Retail employees clearly feel increasingly unsettled. These year-on-year insights underscore the uncertainty felt across the industry – and the autumn Budget likely will have heightened tensions further as people brace for potential job cuts and role shifts in 2025.
“As retail leaders respond to the Budget, they have an opportunity and responsibility to step up and engage meaningfully with their teams. Supporting people through this period isn't just the right thing to do – it’s a key driver of business performance.
“High-performing retailers consistently demonstrate effective employee engagement and a commitment to advancing diversity and inclusion. These are critical strategies for navigating challenges, while fostering resilience and growth within the organisation.”
Coffee drinkers may soon see their morning treat get more expensive, as the price of coffee on international commodity markets hit its highest level on record today (10).
The price for Arabica beans, which account for most global production, topped £2.70 a pound (0.45kg), having jumped more than 80 per cent this year. The cost of Robusta beans, meanwhile, hit a fresh high in September.
It comes as coffee traders expect crops to shrink after the world's two largest producers, Brazil and Vietnam, were hit by bad weather and the drink's popularity continues to grow.
One expert told the BBC coffee brands were considering putting prices up in the new year.
While in recent years major coffee roasters have been able to absorb price hikes to keep customers happy and maintain market share, it looks like that's about to change, according to Vinh Nguyen, the chief executive of Tuan Loc Commodities.
"Brands like JDE Peet (the owner of the Douwe Egberts brand), Nestlé and all that, have [previously] taken the hit from higher raw material prices to themselves," Nguyen told BBC.
"But right now they are almost at a tipping point. A lot of them are mulling a price increase in supermarkets in [the first quarter] of 2025."
Late last month, Nestle confirmed it would continue raising prices and making packs smaller to offset the impact of higher bean prices. At an event for investors in November, a top Nestlé executive said the coffee industry was facing "tough times", admitting his company would have to adjust its prices and pack sizes.
"We are not immune to the price of coffee, far from it," said David Rennie, Nestlé's head of coffee brands.
Coffee is one of the most traded commodities in the world, and demand has been on the rise, boosted by growing consumption in China. However, there is only a handful of producer countries to meet this demand. The key producers include Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia, all tropical countries that are very much impacted by climate change.
Brazil experienced its worst drought in 70 years during August and September, followed by heavy rains in October, raising fears that the flowering crop could fail. The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have also contributed to the uncertainty and fuelled price hikes as they affect shipments.