UK shoppers are unlikely to see cheaper Christmas chocolates this year despite a dramatic fall in global cocoa prices though the impact is expected to reflect in the form of lower prices of Easter chocolates , industry analysts have warned.
Cocoa futures have tumbled to a 21-month low, with prices now more than 50 per cent down from last year’s record peak, but the downturn has come too late to influence this season’s production.
After soaring above £9,155 per tonne earlier this year, cocoa dropped to around £3, 814 per tonne in mid-November, still almost double the long-term average. By Friday (Nov 21), London cocoa had dipped by 2.2 per cent more, The Times reported.
Trade analysts say the market is undergoing a “decisive unwinding” after two years of supply-driven price inflation that hit major manufacturers including Nestlé, Lindt, Hershey and Mondelez hard.
Record raw-material costs have fuelled price hikes, shrinkflation and even changes to cocoa content, pushing some British favourites such as McVitie’s Penguin and Club bars below the technical threshold for what counts as “chocolate”.
Mondelez, owner of Cadbury, Oreo and Toblerone, cut profit forecasts in October, warning of softening demand in Europe and North America as shoppers pull back on discretionary snacking.
The original supply crunch stemmed from weather disruption, disease and ageing cocoa trees in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for nearly two-thirds of global supply.
However, with better rainfall, increased replanting, pruning of older trees and new investment outside West Africa, the picture is now shifting.
However, any softening in prices will not benefit retailers or shoppers this Christmas. Price of chocolate has already gone up by about 15 per cent over the past year, according to the Office for National Statistics, having grown at the fastest pace on record in the lead-up to May.
Experts however clain that a stabilisation in the market will come in time for sales of Easter eggs and chocolate bunnies in 2026.