The National Drought Group (NDG) on Thursday said England’s drought conditions are likely to persist into 2026 – despite recent rainfall.
The warning comes after one of the hottest summers since records began, which helped drive up grocery sales of soft drinks, fruit and summer essentials. But with water levels still worryingly low across much of the country, industry leaders say water efficiency must remain a priority for both consumers and businesses.
According to the NDG – which includes the Met Office, government, regulators, water companies, the National Farmers’ Union, Canal & River Trust, anglers, and conservation experts – England would need at least 100% of its average rainfall this winter to recover from the record-dry spring and scorching summer of 2025. So far this year, only two months have seen rainfall above that threshold.
While September’s downpours brought 149% of average rainfall, reservoir levels remain well below normal at just 63.3%, compared to the typical 76% for this time of year. Some reservoirs in the South East and South West are still less than a third full.
“The recent rain is very welcome, but it needs to be sustained over the next six months,” Helen Wakeham, chair of the National Drought Group, said. “We need a lot more rain this winter to fill up our rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater. Even if it’s wet outside, I urge people to use water as efficiently as possible.”
The Met Office confirmed that the summer of 2025 was the hottest since records began in 1884 and the spring was the driest in 132 years. Chief Meteorologist Dr Will Lang said that by late October, England had received only 61% of its expected annual rainfall, warning of “an increased risk of dry spells through late autumn and early winter.”
Possible impact on food and drink supply
The prospect of another dry year could bring renewed challenges for food and drink supply chains, particularly for fresh produce, livestock feed, and beverage manufacturers.
Farmers have already been urged to increase reservoir storage and explore water-sharing arrangements, with the Environment Agency warning that feed shortages may persist into winter due to poor grass growth earlier in the year.
For retailers, the combination of water restrictions and supply pressures could see higher prices or tighter availability on water-intensive categories such as fresh fruit, vegetables, and bottled drinks – products that saw record demand this summer.
In July, Tesco reported an “unprecedented” 10 per cent surge in fruit sales over three weeks, with berries, stone fruit, melons, grapes and bananas all hitting record volumes as the heatwave drove shoppers to seek refreshing, hydrating foods. ONS data also showed retail sales rose faster than expected in both June and July, supported by warm weather and outdoor dining demand.
Calls for efficiency
Water Minister Emma Hardy said the government is “closely monitoring” the drought situation and working with the NDG and water companies to protect public supplies.
“We face increasing pressure on our water resources,” she said. “That’s why this government is taking decisive action, including developing nine new reservoirs to help secure long-term water resilience.”
Several water firms have already applied for drought permits and orders to conserve supplies, with hosepipe bans remaining in place across parts of Yorkshire, the South East and the Midlands. South East Water’s request for a non-essential use ban – which could affect some business operations – is still being reviewed by Defra.
Water companies have also ramped up leak repairs and public efficiency campaigns. Thames Water, for example, has carried out more than 580 “Smarter Business” visits since July, saving over 2.3 million litres of water per day, while Yorkshire Water has repaired over 11,000 leaks since April.
Nicci Russell, chief executive of Waterwise, said public awareness of droughts remains high, but many people underestimate the long-term risks.
“People notice immediate drought events but may underestimate the scale of the long-term challenge. Making it easy for all of us to waste less water, and explaining why, is more important than ever.”
Retail takeaways
For convenience retailers, the prolonged drought outlook means:
- Monitor water usage: especially for stores with in-house bakeries, coffee machines or food-to-go services.
- Prepare for seasonal shifts: prolonged dry spells could again boost sales of drinks, chilled produce and hydration products.
- Watch supply chains: potential stress on agriculture and water-intensive manufacturing could affect pricing or availability into next summer.
- Engage customers: many suppliers and local councils are promoting water-saving initiatives retailers can echo in-store.