British milk production is likely to plummet this year, with a drop of up to 5.3 percent – the equivalent of 605 million litres – the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has warned, as higher prices of key agricultural inputs and feed ingredients continue to impact the sector.
The body added that the uncertainty surrounding availability and prices made forecasting milk production for the upcoming season an “even trickier task than normal”.
As per recent reports, while considering the key agricultural inputs and feed ingredients severely impacted by the Ukraine war, the AHDB looked at how milk production may be impacted under five different alternative scenarios for the 2022-23 season.
The results revealed that milk production is likely to fall by between 0.8 percent and 5.3 percent, depending on what happens to feed prices, availability and milk prices.
“Access to key agricultural inputs and feed ingredients have been severely affected by the war in Ukraine, which is forcing decisions to limit production,” said Patty Clayton, AHDB lead dairy analyst.
In March, AHDB published a baseline forecast based on discussions from the Milk Forecasting Forum, which set production for 2022-23 at 12,250 million litres, an 0.8 percent fall on the previous season.
AHDB have updated this forecast to reflect a range of scenarios from mild to very high impact based on changes to feed, cull cow and farmgate prices as well as retention rates.
“The current uncertainty makes forecasting milk production for the upcoming season an even trickier task than normal, but we know it’s going to be a tough year for farmers,” said Clayton.
“Reviewing input costs, feed strategies and making the most of home-grown forage can all help. Farmers could also use the cost benefit calculator on our website to understand whether it makes sense to apply fertiliser to grassland,” said Clayton.
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