- Sales of legal tobacco have more than halved since 2021, according to an analysis of new data from HMRC.
- Tobacco sales figures published by the government on Friday revealed that the number of cigarettes sold legally in the United Kingdom has plummeted by 52% since 2021 following a series of large tax rises.
- The decline cannot be explained by the fall in the number of smokers, which has been much smaller, nor by smokers reducing their daily consumption.
The volume of manufactured cigarettes sold dropped by 46 per cent, from 23.4 billion sticks to 12.6 billion sticks, while the volume of rolling tobacco fell by 59 per cent, from 8.6 million kilograms to 3.6 million kilograms. Converting kilograms of rolling tobacco into cigarettes using HMRC's own methodology, Dr Christopher Snowdon of the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) found that a total of 19.8 billion cigarettes were sold legally in the UK in 2025, less than half the figure recorded in 2021 (40.6 billion).
Since 2020, excise tax on cigarettes has risen by 73 per cent, and excise tax on rolling tobacco has risen by 115 per cent. Despite these significant tax rises, tobacco duty revenues have fallen from £10.4 billion to £7.9 billion since 2021 and are now the lowest on record, after adjusting for inflation.
Studies have shown that cigarette consumption per smoker has remained stable in recent years. Estimates of smoking prevalence vary but every survey indicates that the decline in the number of smokers has been much less than 52 per cent. Dr Snowdon says that the “inescapable conclusion” is that the illicit share of the tobacco market has grown enormously since 2020.
“The explosion of black market tobacco in recent years will not come as news to smokers, nor to anyone who pays attention to cigarette packs on the pavement and in beer gardens, but the dramatic decline in legal sales at a time when the number of smokers has been falling more modestly, is conclusive proof that we have a serious problem,” said the IEA's Snowdon.