Discounters’ march continues as grocery inflation hits record high; Sales dip for indies

Four-week grocery price inflation has hit 14.7 per cent in the four weeks to 30 October, according to the latest figures from Kantar, the highest since Kantar began tracking prices in this way in 2008.

Take-home grocery sales rose by 5.2 per cent in the 12 weeks to 30 October, with both Aldi and Lidl posting over 20 per cent year on year growth.

“Yet again, we have a new record high figure for grocery price inflation and it’s too early right now to call the top,” Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, commented.

“Consumers face a £682 jump in their annual grocery bill if they continue to buy the same items and just over a quarter of all households [27 per cent] now say they’re struggling financially, which is double the proportion we recorded last November.

“Nine in ten of this group say higher food and drink prices are a major concern, second only to energy bills, so it’s clear just how much grocery inflation is hitting people’s wallets and adding to their domestic worries.”

Sales at symbols and independents have dipped by 3.1 per cent, the second worst performance after Morrisons, which saw sales decreasing by 4.6 per cent. Waitrose was the only other retailer to see a decline, by 1.9 per cent, in the 12-week period.

Aldi was the fastest growing retailer in the latest period, increasing its sales by 22.7 per cent year on year to now hold a 9.2 per cent market share. Lidl boosted sales by 21.5 per cent to take its market share to a new record high of 7.2 per cent.

“With economic forecasters warning of a potential recession, it’s worth reflecting on how much the grocery landscape has changed since the 2008 financial crash.  We’ve seen a rise in the market share of the discounters Aldi and Lidl, which together now stands at 16.4 per cent, versus 4.4 per cent 14 years ago,” McKevitt said.

Own label sales have jumped again by 10.3 per cent over the latest four weeks, as shoppers adopt different strategies to manage their budgets. The branded goods market grew far slower at 0.4 per cent.

“While some of the rise will be down to price inflation, we can clearly see the trend in sales of the very cheapest value own label ranges, which are up by a whopping 42 per cent.  These items currently represent just under 3 per cent of the market, although retailers have been adding new products in recent months, so it will be interesting to see if this continues,” McKevitt said.

Halloween sales were down compared with 2021.  While just over one in ten households bought a pumpkin in October, the sales didn’t match last year’s levels.

“There’s clear evidence that the new regulations for products high in fat, sugar and salt are changing the way these items are sold.  The proportion of confectionery bought on promotion during the month of October was 26 per cent, down from 36 per cent this time last year,” McKevitt explained.

Fewer people are stocking the cupboards for Christmas in October, instead preferring to wait until later in the year, McKevitt noted.

“This time last year two million consumers had already bought their festive Christmas pudding. We’ve seen 32 per cent fewer shoppers doing that this time around, suggesting people are not trying to spread the cost of their purchasing – at least not in October,” he said.